Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 47.26%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 28.14% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.39%) and 0-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-0 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.