Primeira Liga | Gameweek 16
Jan 6, 2024 at 6pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca0 - 3Benfica
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Estrela Amadora 1-4 Arouca
Thursday, December 28 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Thursday, December 28 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Benfica 3-0 Famalicao
Friday, December 29 at 6.45pm in Primeira Liga
Friday, December 29 at 6.45pm in Primeira Liga
We said: Arouca 1-2 Benfica
Arouca look like a new side under Daniel Sousa and have rattled off wins over Boavista, Gil Vicente, and Estrela in recent weeks, which would have done wonders for their confidence. However, Benfica is a much better side than the hosts have faced recently, and while The Eagles are short-handed heading into this contest, we fancy them to grind out another three points. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 64.13%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 15.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.18%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Benfica |
15.78% ( 0.09) | 20.08% ( 0.06) | 64.13% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 53.08% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
