Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 75.4%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 8.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.2%) and 3-0 (10.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.56%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (3.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
75.4% ( 0.15) | 15.9% ( -0.08) | 8.7% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 44.54% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.95% ( 0.21) | 41.05% ( -0.2) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.56% ( 0.21) | 63.44% ( -0.2) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.77% ( 0.09) | 9.23% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.77% ( 0.21) | 31.23% ( -0.2) |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
49.07% ( 0.01) | 50.93% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.71% ( 0.01) | 85.29% |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
2-0 @ 13.34% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 11.2% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 10.59% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 6.31% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 3.01% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.46% Total : 75.39% | 1-1 @ 7.56% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 4.7% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 3.04% ( -0) Other @ 0.6% Total : 15.9% | 0-1 @ 3.17% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.9% Total : 8.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 37 |
2 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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