MX23RW : Monday, March 10 23:02:08| >> :120:25153:25153:
AZ Alkmaar
Europa League | League Stage
Jan 23, 2025 at 5.45pm UK
AFAS Stadion
Roma logo

AZ
1 - 0
Roma

Parrott (80')
Meerdink (53'), Goes (64'), Belic (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Dovbyk (19'), Hummels (35'), Saelemaekers (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between AZ Alkmaar and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Utrecht 0-0 AZ
Saturday, January 18 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Roma 3-1 Genoa
Friday, January 17 at 7.45pm in Serie A

We said: AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Roma

Given AZ's glowing home record and Roma's fragility on the road, one point would represent a good return for the Italian side. Both teams are enjoying some fine form, so an entertaining contest could be on the cards in Alkmaar. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 51.86%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Roma had a probability of 23.86%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.53%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (6.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match.

Result
AZ AlkmaarDrawRoma
51.86% (-0.189 -0.19) 24.28% (0.243 0.24) 23.86% (-0.055 -0.05)
Both teams to score 52.9% (-0.828 -0.83)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.28% (-1.069 -1.07)48.72% (1.069 1.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.17% (-0.979 -0.98)70.83% (0.979 0.98)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.23% (-0.48 -0.48)18.77% (0.479 0.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.84% (-0.809 -0.81)50.16% (0.81 0.81)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.11% (-0.63199999999999 -0.63)34.88% (0.631 0.63)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.38% (-0.671 -0.67)71.62% (0.672 0.67)
Score Analysis
    AZ Alkmaar 51.86%
    Roma 23.86%
    Draw 24.27%
AZ AlkmaarDrawRoma
1-0 @ 10.95% (0.31 0.31)
2-1 @ 9.65% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-0 @ 9.16% (0.123 0.12)
3-1 @ 5.38% (-0.104 -0.1)
3-0 @ 5.11% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.83% (-0.105 -0.11)
4-1 @ 2.25% (-0.079 -0.08)
4-0 @ 2.14% (-0.038 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.19% (-0.063 -0.06)
Other @ 3.2%
Total : 51.86%
1-1 @ 11.53% (0.13 0.13)
0-0 @ 6.55% (0.283 0.28)
2-2 @ 5.08% (-0.108 -0.11)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.055 -0.06)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 24.27%
0-1 @ 6.89% (0.183 0.18)
1-2 @ 6.07% (-0.034 -0.03)
0-2 @ 3.63% (0.035 0.03)
1-3 @ 2.13% (-0.05 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.78% (-0.069 -0.07)
0-3 @ 1.27% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.07%
Total : 23.86%

How you voted: AZ vs Roma

AZ Alkmaar
35.4%
Draw
23.4%
Roma
41.1%
209
rhs 2.0
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