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Arouca
Benfica
Boavista
Braga
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Nacional
Porto
Rio Ave
Farense logo
Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 18
Jan 30, 2023 at 8.15pm UK
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Chaves

Guimaraes
2 - 1
Chaves

Silva (18' pen.), Safira (90+7')
Bamba (22'), Silva (60'), Silva (79')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Abass (90+5')
Ponck (30'), Langa (58'), Guimaraes (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Chaves, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Guimaraes 0-1 Porto
Saturday, January 21 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Boavista 1-1 Chaves
Monday, January 23 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Vitoria de Guimaraes 1-1 Chaves

It would not be too much of a surprise if Chaves record a fourth consecutive 1-1 draw in this one given how close the sides are in the table and in similar ropey form. Guimaraes have won the last three head-to-heads though, and will hope that can give them the edge. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 44.62%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 28.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.

Result
Vitoria de GuimaraesDrawChaves
44.62% (0.086000000000006 0.09) 27.32% (-0.044 -0.04) 28.06% (-0.044 -0.04)
Both teams to score 47.42% (0.103 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.38% (0.143 0.14)57.62% (-0.146 -0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.61% (0.114 0.11)78.39% (-0.116 -0.12)
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.29% (0.108 0.11)25.7% (-0.111 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.37% (0.147 0.15)60.62% (-0.15 -0.15)
Chaves Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.82% (0.043999999999997 0.04)36.17% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.04% (0.043000000000003 0.04)72.96% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Vitoria de Guimaraes 44.62%
    Chaves 28.06%
    Draw 27.32%
Vitoria de GuimaraesDrawChaves
1-0 @ 12.63% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.72% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
2-0 @ 8.58% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.95% (0.021 0.02)
3-0 @ 3.89% (0.015 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.01% (0.013 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.34% (0.011 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.32% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.18%
Total : 44.62%
1-1 @ 12.84% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 9.3% (-0.051 -0.05)
2-2 @ 4.44% (0.015 0.01)
Other @ 0.74%
Total : 27.32%
0-1 @ 9.46% (-0.041 -0.04)
1-2 @ 6.53%
0-2 @ 4.81% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.21% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 1.63% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 1.5% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 28.06%

How you voted: Guimaraes vs Chaves

Vitoria de Guimaraes
49.3%
Draw
42.0%
Chaves
8.7%
69
Head to Head
Aug 7, 2022 8.30pm
Chaves
0-1
Guimaraes

Pedro Fortes Bachiessa (16'), Monte (63')
Silva (45+3')
Villanueva (16'), Maga (18'), Bamba (23'), Sa (46'), Amaro (54'), Silva (82'), Varela (83'), Salgueiro Pains (90')
Semedo (82'), Salgueiro Pains (90+5')
Apr 6, 2019 6pm
Guimaraes
4-0
Chaves
Wakaso (4'), Toze (11' pen.), Rochinha (36'), Guedes (80')

Bressan (65')
Dec 2, 2018 5.30pm
Jan 12, 2018 8.30pm
Chaves
4-3
Guimaraes
Tiba (35' pen., 96' pen.), Davidson (37', 43')
Pereira (73')
Hurtado (10'), Raphinha (16'), Tallo (39')
Garcia (28'), Ramos (30'), Kiko (95')
Aug 10, 2017 9pm
Guimaraes
3-2
Chaves
Zungu (23'), Hurtado (32'), Raphinha (57')
Celis (78')
William (80', 89')
Paulinho (43'), Elhouni (75'), Duarte (83'), Pereira (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon15121243103337
2Porto1512123692737
3Benfica1411213482635
4Braga1584327161128
5Santa ClaraSanta Clara159061615127
6Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes146441814422
7Casa Pia155551618-220
8MoreirenseMoreirense156271922-320
9FamalicaoFamalicao154741817119
10Gil Vicente154561724-717
11Rio AveRio Ave144461525-1016
12Estoril PraiaEstoril143561221-914
13AVS152761122-1113
14BoavistaBoavista152671019-912
15Nacional14338819-1112
16Estrela Amadora143381224-1212
17SC FarenseFarense15339921-1212
18AroucaArouca153210926-1711


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