Seeking to respond to a number of setbacks prior to the international break, Paris Saint-Germain resume their quest for Ligue 1 glory against Lorient at the Parc des Princes on Sunday night.
Les Parisiens went down with a whimper in a 3-0 loss to Monaco two weekends ago, as Les Merlus managed to hold European-chasing Strasbourg to a goalless stalemate.
Match preview
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PSG's penchant for capitulations in the Champions League is well-documented, and it would be some story if Mauricio Pochettino's under-performing side were to lose their grip on the Ligue 1 title now, but stranger things have happened in football.
With the ill Lionel Messi helplessly watching on, PSG were outgunned, outfought and outclassed by Monaco at the Stade Louis II, as Wissam Ben Yedder's deft near-post flick and penalty came either side of Kevin Volland's finish in gameweek 29.
While Pochettino's side still boast an unassailable 12-point lead at the top of the pile, the gap to the summit could be cut to single figures if second-placed Marseille overcome Saint-Etienne on Saturday, and PSG may just start to look nervously over their shoulder should this mixed bag of results continue.
Bottling the Ligue 1 title would be a whole new level of embarrassment for PSG and Pochettino, but home is truly where the heart is for Les Parisiens as far as domestic fortunes are concerned, with the league leaders taking 40 points from a possible 42 at the Parc des Princes this term.
When Sunday rolls around, it will be a year to the day that PSG's most recent Ligue 1 home defeat befell them - a 1-0 loss to Lille - and the hosts will certainly feel optimistic about their chances of a seventh clean sheet from eight at the Parc des Princes to reignite their silverware pursuit.
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Had it not been for the heroics of Matthieu Dreyer as Lorient's last line of defence, Les Merlus could have ended up on the wrong end of the scoreline against top-five hopefuls Strasbourg, but Christophe Pelissier's side displayed a sense of defensive resilience that has come to the fore quite often in recent weeks.
Dreyer had to be alert to claw away Jean-Ricner Bellegarde's deflected close-range effort, which took a nick off Leo Petrot on its way to Dreyer's outstretched hand, and Strasbourg number one Matz Sels unconventionally kept out Armand Lauriente's powerful free kick in a goalless stalemate.
Keeping five clean sheets from seven Ligue 1 matches since the beginning of February has seen Lorient slowly clamber away from the dreaded dotted line, with Les Merlus entering gameweek 30 16th in the standings and five points clear of the automatic relegation places.
A resurgent Saint-Etienne could leapfrog Lorient with victory over Marseille on Saturday, but Pelissier's side have impressively won two and drawn one of their last three away from home - keeping three clean sheets to boot - and will need their newfound solidity to be on full show if they are to travel back from the capital with something to show for it.
Furthermore, Lorient have managed to avoid defeat in their last two meetings with PSG - drawing 1-1 at home in December after a 3-2 win at the Moustoir last term - but Les Parisiens have strung together a five-game winning streak in this fixture on home soil.
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Team News
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PSG's Messi recovered from the flu in time to turn out for Argentina last month and is set to reclaim his rightful spot in attack here, but Keylor Navas has returned from international duty with an adductor problem and will need to be assessed.
The hosts' treatment room has also welcomed Ismael Gharbi, Abdou Diallo, Julian Draxler, Angel Di Maria and Ander Herrera, who has picked up a hamstring injury after recovering from an eye infection. Juan Bernat and Layvin Kurzawa are not ready to return yet either.
Marco Verratti was at fault for two of Monaco's goals last time out and will also miss out due to a hamstring issue, so Idrissa Gueye ought to earn a recall to the hosts' midfield.
As for Lorient, Pelissier will be forced into a midfield rejig with Bonke Innocent suspended for an accumulation of yellow cards, although the Nigeria international picked up an adductor injury during the break anyway.
Fabien Lemoine (calf) is pushing to return to action for Sunday's game and could deputise for Innocent if fit enough, but the attack-minded Enzo Le Fee and Quentin Boisgard represent fresher options.
Stephane Diarra and Samuel Loric will not be able to return from their injuries in time for Sunday, and Pelissier may consider reintroducing Jeremy Morel or Moritz Jenz into a back five should the visiting manager opt for a defensive setup against the champions-elect.
Paris Saint-Germain possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Kimpembe, Mendes; Pereira, Paredes, Gueye; Messi, Mbappe, Neymar
Lorient possible starting lineup:
Dreyer; Mendes, Laporte, Jenz, Petrot, Le Goff; Lauriente, Abergel, Monconduit, Moffi; Kone
We say: Paris Saint-Germain 2-0 Lorient
With the prospect of Lorient deploying a low block to work around Innocent's absence, a PSG side enduring their worst spell of the season cannot expect to break down this dogged Merlus defence at will.
However, Pochettino's side rarely slip up at home in the league, and while they will need to be patient for their opportunities against Pelissier's side, they should take a couple of them to return to winning ways.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 83.29%. A draw had a probability of 11.9% and a win for Lorient had a probability of 4.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.25%) and 1-0 (10.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.59%), while for a Lorient win it was 0-1 (2.08%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
