PSV Eindhoven will be looking to keep their Eredivisie title charge alive when they travel to face mid-table Heerenveen at the Abe Lenstra Stadion on Sunday afternoon.
Roger Schmidt's side go into the weekend sitting level on points with leaders Ajax, but with a significantly worse goal difference than their great rivals.
Match preview
© Reuters
Ajax have been in formidable form domestically this season, scoring 42 goals and conceding just two in their 13 Eredivisie games so far, but it is points which count most and PSV are right there with them at the top of the table as things stand.
Sunday's visitors will be hoping for an unlikely slip-up from their rivals when Ajax face relegation-threatened Sparta Rotterdam earlier in the day, but they must also continue doing their part with a fourth straight Eredivisie win this weekend.
Since their chastening 5-0 defeat to Ajax on October 24, Schmidt's side have taken nine points from nine, scoring 11 times in the process - a perfect response to a second humiliation of the season against a major rival, having also lost 4-0 at home to Feyenoord in September.
PSV have lost three times in the league this term - more than both of the other 'big three' in the Netherlands - but their tally of 10 wins is the best in the division, while only free-scoring Ajax have found the back of the net more times.
Last season's runners-up, who are bidding for a first title since 2017-18, will come into this match in high spirits too, having beaten Sturm Graz 2-0 in the Europa League on Thursday night.
Goals from Carlos Vinicius and Bruma set up a winner-takes-all showdown with Real Sociedad in the final group game next week, while also extending PSV's unbeaten streak to five games across all competitions.
Heerenveen's undefeated run does not stretch as far back - just two games - but they do also head into Sunday's match off the back of a victory last weekend.
Filip Stevanovic and Nick Bakker were on the scoresheet as Heerenveen not only overcame a one-goal deficit, but also a 22nd-minute red card, to pile more misery on an out-of-form Willem II with a 2-1 victory.
De Superfriezen remain below Willem II and had been plummeting down the table themselves prior to that win, falling from third in gameweek five to 12th courtesy of a seven-game streak which saw them lose five times and win just once.
The target now will be to chalk up back-to-back wins for the first time since their first two games of the season, and doing so would get their hopes of European qualification back on track.
However, they have not beaten a single team currently sitting in the top eight so far this term, while no team has lost more home games in the league this season and only Fortuna Sittard have conceded more goals on their own patch.
PSV's away record is one of the best in the division, meanwhile, although they have not won away to Heerenveen in the league since 2011 - an eight-game streak which includes four defeats and four draws.
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Schmidt is suffering from something of an injury crisis heading into this game, with at least eight players ruled out - including top scorer Eran Zahavi.
Cody Gakpo and Noni Madueke have also been among the club's best attacking threats this season but are currently sidelined through injury, leaving the visitors particularly short up front.
Carlos Vinicius and Bruma got on the scoresheet in midweek and so could be entrusted to do so again, with Yorbe Vertessen set to continue his role as a sub this term.
PSV will also be without Maximiliano Romero, Philipp Max, Jordan Teze, Ryan Thomas and Richard Ledezma, although most of the absentees are expected back by early to mid-December.
Heerenveen will be without Anthony Musaba after his red card against Willem II last time out, which could see Benjamin Nygren come in for just his fourth league start of the season.
Sven van Beek and Pawel Bochniewicz also remain sidelined for the hosts, while Siem de Jong and Erwin Mulder are facing a race against time to prove their fitness for Johnny Jansen's side.
Heerenveen possible starting lineup:
Mous; Van Ewijk, Dresevic, Bakker, Kaib; Nygren, Halilovic, Madsen, J Veerman, Stevanovic; H Veerman
PSV Eindhoven possible starting lineup:
Drommel; Mwene, Ramalho, Boscagli, Junior; Sangare, Gutierrez; Doan, Gotze, Bruma; Vinicius
We say: Heerenveen 1-2 PSV Eindhoven
PSV have been prone to the odd horror-show this season, but they have been impressive in recent weeks and should have enough to take all three points from this one, ending a decade-long hoodoo at this stadium in the process despite their attacking absentees.
Heerenveen will hope that last weekend's win gets them back on track, but a visit from one of the 'big three' is the last thing they needed to follow that triumph up.
Barney Corkhill
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 61.18%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 17.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.99%) and 1-2 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.87%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-0 (4.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.
