Two teams involved in the relegation battle in Spain's top flight will lock horns on Saturday evening as Leganes welcome Real Valladolid to the Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
Leganes are currently 19th in La Liga, six points behind 15th-placed Valladolid as the 2019-20 campaign prepares to resume following more than three months without a game.
Match preview
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Leganes only just survived the threat of relegation in both the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons as they finished 17th, but they ended the 2018-19 campaign in a comfortable 13th.
Javier Aguirre's side are locked in another relegation battle this term, though, with a total of 23 points from 27 matches leaving them in 19th position in the table.
Los Pepineros are only three points behind 17th-placed Celta Vigo, though, and have more than enough games to escape the bottom three before the campaign finishes.
Goals have been a real problem this season; indeed, no side in Spain's top flight has scored fewer, with Aguirre's team finding the back of the net on just 21 occasions in their 27 matches.
They have only lost one of their last four in the league, though, and picked up an impressive 2-1 victory at Villarreal before the campaign was called to a halt towards the start of March.
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Valladolid, meanwhile, are not out of the relegation argument at this stage as they occupy 15th spot in the table, just four points clear of the bottom three with every side on the same number of games.
Sergio Gonzalez's side have only lost 10 league games this season, which is fewer than both Villarreal and Granada; it is also only one more than Real Sociedad in fourth position.
Too many draws have cost Valladolid the chance to push up the table, though, and therefore the team still have work to do in the coming weeks in order to secure their spot in Spain's top flight.
Pucela have lost three of their last four in La Liga, including a 4-1 home defeat to Athletic Bilbao last time out.
Valladolid have also been beaten in two of their last three La Liga matches with Leganes, but the pair played out a 2-2 draw when they locked horns in the reverse match back in January.
Leganes La Liga form: WLDLDW
Valladolid La Liga form: WDLWLL
Team News
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Alexander Szymanowski will again miss out for the home side due to a knee problem, but Aguirre otherwise has a full squad to choose from heading into Saturday's contest.
It would not be a surprise to see the same XI that started against Villarreal last time out, meaning that Oscar Rodriguez would again be joined by Guido Carrillo as part of a front two.
Roque Mesa and Kevin Rodrigues should also both keep their spots in wide areas.
As for Valladolid, January arrival Hatem Ben Arfa could come into Gonzalez's thinking when it comes to a starting position, while Toni Suarez is another option for change.
Sergi Guardiola was suspended against Bilbao last time out but should return to the XI, while Sandro Ramirez and Oscar Plano should keep their spots in forward positions.
Leganes possible starting lineup:
Pichu; Rosales, Awaziem, Siovas, Silva; Aitor, Amadou, Mesa, Rodrigues; Oscar, Carrillo
Valladolid possible starting lineup:
Masip; Salisu, Olivas, Joaquin; Nacho, Alcaraz, Guardiola, Porro; Ramirez, Unal, Plano
We say: Leganes 1-1 Real Valladolid
There is no downplaying the importance of this match to both teams as they look to move clear of trouble. A case can certainly be made for either to win it, but we are finding it hard to separate them and have therefore backed a low-scoring draw, which is not what either manager will have in mind.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leganes win with a probability of 43.31%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 27.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leganes win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.88%) and 2-1 (8.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.19%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 0-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
