Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dynamo Moscow win with a probability of 59.52%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 17.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dynamo Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.55%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.92%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dynamo Moscow would win this match.