Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 37.79%. A win for Rubin Kazan had a probability of 35.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Rubin Kazan win was 0-1 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.