Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 39.93%. A win for Cittadella had a probability of 33.91% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.86%). The likeliest Cittadella win was 1-0 (9.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.