Swindon Town and Port Vale will look to move a step closer to promotion on Sunday afternoon when they meet in the first leg of their League Two playoff semi-final.
Both clubs only made sure of their place in the top seven with victories on the final day of the campaign, resulting in Sutton United missing out.
Match preview
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While the majority of clubs who finished in the top seven can claim to have been in contention for automatic promotion at some stage over the past month, that cannot be said of Swindon.
Nevertheless, it is the Robins who have the momentum ahead of the playoffs getting underway having recorded four successive victories in the fourth tier.
The latest, a 3-0 triumph at Walsall, ensured that they finished ahead of the unfortunate Sutton, and Ben Garner will feel that his side are perfectly set to earn a return to League One.
Fifteen goals have been scored in six games, the strikes being shared among several different players with Harry McKirdy reaching 20 league goals for the campaign.
Swindon also ended the regular season with the best attacking record in the division, but that will not necessarily concern opponents in Port Vale who recorded the fifth-best defensive return.
Seven goals had been conceded in three games ahead of the final game at Exeter City, Vale aware that a fourth successive defeat could have led to them missing out on the playoffs.
However, Darrell Clarke's side emerged from that contest with a 1-0 success, denying Exeter the title in the process, and belief will again be high ahead of this fixture.
On a negative note, Vale have not scored more than once in any of their last five fixtures, and each of their most recent four goals have been scored by different players.
The corresponding regular fixture took place all the way back on September 11 with a Ben Garrity double earning Vale a 2-1 win at the County Ground.
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Team News
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Providing that no fresh injuries occur in the days before Sunday's fixture, Garner is unlikely to tinker with his Swindon XI.
Garner's side were in cruise control during the second half versus Walsall, allowing for several players to be handed rests ahead of this fixture.
Goalkeeper Lewis Ward, who has made just nine starts this campaign, should retain his place between the sticks.
With left-sided Port Vale player Calvin Hussey going off injured against Exeter, Malvind Benning is on standby to deputise at wing-back.
Ryan Edmondson is in line to retain his place in the final third despite having failed to score since March 1.
Swindon Town possible starting lineup:
Ward; Egbo, Conroy, Baudry, Iandolo; Reed, Payne, Williams; McKirdy, Davison, Barry
Port Vale possible starting lineup:
Stone; Smith, Martin, Hall; Gibbons, Pett, Garrity, Hussey; Wilson; Proctor, Edmondson
We say: Swindon Town 2-1 Port Vale
Having defeated Exeter on away territory, Port Vale will fancy their chances of another away trip with a win against the odds. However, we cannot ignore Swindon's form heading into this contest, leading us to predict a narrow home victory.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 41.09%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 32.35% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Swindon Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Swindon Town.
