After another season of near-misses, ambitious Atalanta BC start their new Serie A campaign with a trip to Torino on Saturday evening.
Calcio's great entertainers ultimately finished third in the 2020-21 standings and were beaten in the Coppa Italia final by Juventus, so will seek to get off to a winning start in pursuit of further progress this year.
Match preview
© Reuters
While most of the other top-four contenders have been dealing with a post-season change of management, Atalanta are back in action this week having retained the mastermind of their recent success, Gian Piero Gasperini.
Though some disappointment tinged the end of last season, the Bergamo club nonetheless managed to qualify for a return to the Champions League and are once more among the favourites to push Juventus and Scudetto-holders Inter all the way in the league. Furthermore, they have so far kept most of their talented squad intact, so the prospect of more free-flowing football is one to savour for the returning Bergamaschi fans.
Of course, impressive defender Cristian Romero has now joined goalkeeper Pierluigi Gollini at Tottenham Hotspur - at a typically tidy potential profit - and star striker Duvan Zapata is continually linked with a move to Inter as Romelu Lukaku's replacement. However, Atalanta are masters of the market and have brought in promising centre-backs Matteo Lovato and Merih Demiral - from Verona and Juventus respectively - to supplement their rearguard; with their rotating cast of raiding wing-backs also standing ready to wreak havoc on opposition defences once again.
La Dea travel to Turin, this week, in the knowledge they have won each of their last three season openers, after having picked up only two points in their previous eight first-day fixtures. Not only that, but the league's top scorers in 2020-21 - with a staggering 90 goals - have also registered the most strikes on the opening matchday over the last three seasons combined (11).
In particular, Zapata's compatriot and forward-line colleague Luis Muriel enjoys taking on Torino, as he has had a hand in six Serie A goals against them since joining Atalanta. Certainly, he will be integral to their output again, after ranking behind only Robert Lewandowski in terms of goals-per-minute in Europe's top five leagues last term - finding the net every 65 minutes on average.
© Reuters
In contrast to Atalanta, managerial instability has marked Torino's past few years - and the results have not been pretty.
Though Davide Nicola ultimately steered the Granata away from relegation trouble towards the end of last season, the boyhood Toro fan was not rewarded with a longer-term contract, having taken over from Marco Giampaolo in January.
Now, highly regarded ex-Verona boss Ivan Juric becomes the fifth man through the door in the last three years, with the brief to improve the club's fortunes and avoid another desperate battle to evade demotion.
The demanding Croatian coach has a lot of work to do, as he attempts to adapt the mindset of a virtually unchanged squad, and Torino only scraped through to the second round of the Coppa Italia last weekend by virtue of a penalty shoot-out, having failed to defeat 10-man Cremonese.
Before reinforcements can arrive though, sales must be made, with centre-back Lyanco on the verge of joining Real Betis or Watford - and several others rumoured to be following him through the exit.
After suffering a striker shortage at his former club last term, Juric will be desperate for star striker Andrea Belotti not to be among any exodus, as - despite a decreased goal rate over the past year - the Euro 2020-winner is integral to the Granata's hopes again.
Belotti has scored three goals in his last two matches against Atalanta - a 4-2 defeat and February's enthralling 3-3 draw - and has drawn within touching distance of reaching 100 Serie A goals (currently on 98). Until the transfer window closes, the Torino faithful will be praying that his century arrives while still wearing their famous maroon shirt.
- W
- D
- D
- L
- L
- W
- D
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Atalanta start the season without first-choice centre-forward Duvan Zapata, who was recently ruled out until next month after spraining his knee, while Hans Hateboer - an injury victim throughout much of last season - is also out, due to a foot injury which could require surgery.
In addition to the departures of Cristian Romero and Pierluigi Gollini for North London, Marten De Roon, Remo Freuler and Rafael Toloi (all suspended) will be unavailable to Gian Piero Gasperini on Saturday, so his XI will call for some improvisation.
Summer signing Merih Demiral started in a back three in the Nerazzurri's friendly defeat to his parent club Juventus last week, and the Turkey international could be joined by fellow new boy Matteo Lovato in defence, while Joakim Maehle - a star of the Euros - will fill in for Hateboer on the right flank.
Meanwhile, Juan Musso will make his competitive debut in goal and Luis Muriel should be supported by Ruslan Malinovskyi and Josip Ilicic in attack.
The home side are poised to adopt Ivan Juric's favoured 3-4-2-1 formation this weekend, despite teething troubles in the cup last time out, with captain Andrea Belotti leading the line if he can recover from an ankle sprain in time. Otherwise, either Antonio Sanabria or Simone Zaza will deputise.
Should their skipper be ready to start, Torino are set to be near full strength, as only Ola Aina - freshly returned from a loan spell back in England - could be asked to slot in at left wing-back, given doubts over Cristian Ansaldi's fitness.
Etrit Berisha should start in goal and Marko Pjaca - signed on loan from city rivals Juventus - is expected to line up in a role just behind the lone front man.
Torino possible starting lineup:
Berisha; Bremer, Buongiorno, Rodriguez; Singo, Mandragora, Linetty, Aina; Lukic, Pjaca; Belotti
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Musso; Palomino, Demiral, Djimsiti; Maehle, Pessina, Pasalic, Gosens; Ilicic, Malinovskyi; Muriel
We say: Torino 2-3 Atalanta BC
Ivan Juric and his mentor Gian Piero Gasperini may be old friends, but both men will be intent on sealing success in this curtain-raiser - and it promises to be an entertaining 90 minutes.
Atalanta are associated with all-out attack for a reason and - even in the absence of some key men - can continue their goalscoring feats where they left off in May. Torino, meanwhile, may take a while to learn the methods of their new manager and will come up short on Saturday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 52.32%. A win for Torino had a probability of 25.75% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.37%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Torino win was 2-1 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Atalanta BC in this match.
