This Saturday, two of La Liga's most out-of-form sides go toe-to-toe in a contest that could go a long way in deciding who will be playing Segunda Division football next season.
Valencia, who have found themselves in choppy waters this season, come into this game knowing that a win could put some distance between them and the dreaded drop zone, while Elche have failed to win a top-flight match since mid-October.
Match preview
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Valencia boss Javi Gracia is a man under pressure. On top of overseeing one of the team's worst La Liga campaigns in modern times, Gracia's men also crashed out of the Copa del Rey in midweek when Sevilla thrashed them 3-0 in Andalusia.
Los Che, who have endured something of a doomed campaign this season, are 14th place in the table, just two points above the relegation zone.
Against Atletico Madrid last time out, Valencia started the game well, with Uros Racic finding the back of the net with a spectacular long-range strike. However, Gracia's men were eventually undone by Atleti, losing the game 2-1.
The result was the latest of a seemingly endless string of poor results for Los Che, who have won just one La Liga game since they bested Real Madrid at Mestalla in November.
Despite that victory, Gracia's men have failed to make Mestalla a fortress this season, with Los Che picking up just 11 points on home turf so far.
If Valencia are to keep catastrophe at bay, the team will have to improve their home form, starting with three points against Elche.
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You would be hard-pressed to find a side worse than Valencia this season, but Jorge Almiron's Elche are potentially the prime candidates in that category.
Elche are winless in 13 La Liga outings, a run in which they have picked up just seven points. Still, Almiron's men will take inspiration from the fact that their last three points came against Los Che in mid-October.
Coming away from Mestalla with a win is a tough ask for Elche, but Almiron's side can at least boast the 11th best away form in the league.
Out of the eight games on their travels, Los Franjiverdes have picked up two wins and three draws. Currently 19th in the table, this is a must-win game for Elche, who have been flirting with relegation all season.
Valencia La Liga form: LDDWDL
Valencia form (all competitions): WWWDLL
Elche La Liga form: DDLLDL
Elche form (all competitions): LWLLDL
Team News
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After navigating the team through an injury crisis earlier on in the campaign, Gracia has relatively few injury worries to contend with this weekend.
Kevin Gameiro, who only just returned to action after a short injury lay-off, is unavailable once again due to COVID-19.
Thierry Correia and Mouctar Diakhaby are both also out with hamstring injuries, meaning Gracia will be forced to tweak his backline.
Elche will be without Fidel, who has a hamstring injury, while new boy Johan Mojica could start again in defence.
Valencia possible starting lineup:
Domenech; Wass, Gabriel, Guillamon, Gaya; Musah, Soler, Racic, Cheryshev; Gomez, Vallejo
Elche possible starting lineup:
Badia; Barragan, Gonzalo, Gonzalez, Mojica; Josan Fernandez, Guti, Marcone, Rodriguez, Rigoni; Boye
We say: Valencia 2-1 Elche
Valencia have been a shadow of their former selves in recent weeks and many La Liga neutrals have been waiting for them to come alive this season. We do not think Los Che will come alive, but we do think they have what it takes to find their way past Elche this weekend.
Top betting tip
Francis Buchanan
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 39.9%. A win for Elche had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Elche win was 0-1 (11.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Valencia in this match.
