Villarreal and Atalanta BC will lock horns for the first time in their respective histories on Tuesday night, with the two teams opening their Champions League group-stage campaign at Estadio de la Ceramica.
The Yellow Submarine have not been in action since drawing 2-2 with Atletico Madrid at the end of August, while Atalanta will enter the clash off the back of a 2-1 home defeat to Fiorentina on Saturday.
Match preview
© Reuters
Villarreal ensured that they would be present in the group stages of the 2021-22 Champions League by winning the Europa League last term, with the Yellow Submarine overcoming Manchester United on penalties in the final after the two teams had played out a 1-1 draw over the course of 120 minutes.
Unai Emery's side actually finished seventh in La Liga last term, and they are competing in the group stage of the Champions League for just the fourth time, while this season is their first participation since 2011-12, when they finished bottom of a section which included Bayern Munich, Napoli and Manchester City.
The Yellow Submarine have previous experience when it comes to reaching the knockout round of the Champions League, having made the semi-finals in 2005-06 and quarter-finals three years later. This term, they will have to negotiate their way through a group that also includes Man United and Young Boys.
Villarreal have only played three times in La Liga this term, as their clash against Alaves, which was scheduled to take place on Saturday, was postponed due to the extended South American World Cup qualifying window.
Emery's team have therefore not been in action since drawing 2-2 with Spanish champions Atletico on August 29, and it remains to be seen whether the rest will help them or hinder them in this European contest.
© Reuters
Atalanta, though, were in league action on Saturday, suffering a 2-1 home defeat to Fiorentina in Serie A; a mixed start to the 2021-22 campaign has left the team in 10th position in the table, having picked up four points from their three matches, with their victory coming away to Torino on August 21.
Gian Piero Gasperini's side are making their third successive appearance in the group stages, and they have made the knockout rounds in their last two participations, reaching the quarter-finals two seasons ago before making the round of 16 last term, where they lost to Real Madrid.
Atalanta finished third in Serie A last term and also made the final of the Coppa Italia, and there is no question that they will be expecting to challenge high up the division this term, in addition to making an impression in the Champions League - a competition where they have put in some standout performances.
La Dea have never taken on Villarreal, and they have actually only faced Spanish opposition on four previous occasions, losing over two legs to Real Madrid in last season's Champions League but beating Valencia in the last-16 stage of the 2019-20 Europa League.
- D
- D
- D
- W
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Villarreal will again be without the services of Samuel Chukwueze due to a hamstring problem, while the club are sweating on the fitness of leading goalscorer from last season Gerard Moreno.
Moreno was forced to leave the Spain camp during the recent international break due to a thigh problem, but the indications are that the forward will be cleared to feature on Tuesday night.
Head coach Emery will have been pleased with his team's performance against Atletico before the international break, so it would not be a surprise to see the same XI, with Alberto Moreno operating in a midfield position, and Boulaye Dia featuring alongside Gerard Moreno in the final third.
As for Atalanta, Hans Hateboer and Luis Muriel will both miss the contest through injury, but Marten de Roon's suspension only relates to Serie A, so the midfielder is available for selection here.
Muriel's absence means that Duvan Zapata will lead the line for the visitors, while Josip Ilicic and Ruslan Malinovskyi - both substitutes at the weekend - could also feature as part of a front three.
De Roon's lack of football this season will count against him when it comes to a starting spot, so Mario Pasalic and Remo Freuler could feature as the two central midfielders in a 3-4-3 formation.
Villarreal possible starting lineup:
Rulli; Foyth, Albiol, Mandi, Estupinan; Pino, Trigueros, Capoue, A Moreno; G Moreno, Dia
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Musso; Toloi, Palomino, Djimsiti; Maehle, Pasalic, Freuler, Gosens; Ilicic, Zapata, Malinovskyi
We say: Villarreal 1-1 Atalanta BC
This is a very difficult match to call, even more so considering that Villarreal have not played since the end of August. Both teams will believe that they can cause issues in the final third of the field, but we are struggling to separate them and have therefore had to settle on a low-scoring draw in Spain.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 36.54%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 34.84% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.66%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (11.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
