Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 54.79%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 21.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for a Erzgebirge Aue win it was 0-1 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.
