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Adelaide United
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
Macarthur
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
Newcastle Jets
Perth Glory
Sydney FC
Wellington Phoenix
Western Sydney Wanderers
Western United
Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League | Gameweek 4
Nov 9, 2024 at 6am UK
AAMI Park
Brisbane Roar

Victory
2 - 0
Brisbane Roar

Velupillay (38'), Geria (76')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Shour (28'), Van Der Saag (85')
Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Brisbane Roar.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Victory 2-1 Macarthur
Sunday, November 3 at 5am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Brisbane Roar 2-3 Sydney FC
Friday, November 1 at 8.35am in Australian A-League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 44.27%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 31.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result
Melbourne VictoryDrawBrisbane Roar
44.27% (0.735 0.73) 24.3% (-0.022000000000002 -0.02) 31.43% (-0.709 -0.71)
Both teams to score 58.83% (-0.241 -0.24)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.34% (-0.176 -0.18)43.66% (0.18 0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.95% (-0.172 -0.17)66.05% (0.176 0.18)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.12% (0.24900000000001 0.25)19.88% (-0.245 -0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.01% (0.398 0.4)51.99% (-0.395 -0.39)
Brisbane Roar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.43% (-0.527 -0.53)26.58% (0.531 0.53)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.21% (-0.705 -0.7)61.79% (0.70999999999999 0.71)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne Victory 44.27%
    Brisbane Roar 31.43%
    Draw 24.29%
Melbourne VictoryDrawBrisbane Roar
2-1 @ 9.14% (0.074 0.07)
1-0 @ 8.53% (0.132 0.13)
2-0 @ 6.89% (0.158 0.16)
3-1 @ 4.92% (0.077 0.08)
3-0 @ 3.71% (0.113 0.11)
3-2 @ 3.26% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-1 @ 1.99% (0.046 0.05)
4-0 @ 1.5% (0.057 0.06)
4-2 @ 1.32% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 3.01%
Total : 44.27%
1-1 @ 11.3%
2-2 @ 6.05% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-0 @ 5.28% (0.041 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.44% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 24.29%
1-2 @ 7.49% (-0.111 -0.11)
0-1 @ 7% (-0.051 -0.05)
0-2 @ 4.64% (-0.105 -0.11)
1-3 @ 3.31% (-0.101 -0.1)
2-3 @ 2.67% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-3 @ 2.05% (-0.078 -0.08)
1-4 @ 1.1% (-0.05 -0.05)
Other @ 3.17%
Total : 31.43%

Head to Head
Apr 20, 2024 8.30am
Mar 3, 2024 6am
Gameweek 19
Brisbane Roar
3-2
Victory
Rojas (23', 56'), Waddingham (70')
Hore (39'), Burke-Gilroy (62'), Jelacic (90')
Machach (35'), Bonevacia (86')
Geria (15')
Apr 29, 2023 10.45am
Jan 6, 2023 8.45am
Oct 29, 2022 5am
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS


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