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Asian Cup
Australia national football team
Asian Cup | Round of 16
Jan 28, 2024 at 11.30am UK
Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium
Indonesia national football team

Australia
4 - 0
Indonesia

Baggott (12' og.), Boyle (45'), Goodwin (89'), Souttar (90+1')
Fornaroli (15'), Jones (65')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Mangkualam (35'), Walsh (68'), Amat (90'), Struick (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Asian Cup clash between Australia and Indonesia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Australia

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Australia 1-1 Uzbekistan
Tuesday, January 23 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

Indonesia

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Japan 3-1 Indonesia
Wednesday, January 24 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

We said: Australia 2-0 Indonesia

 Making it to this stage of the competition is a significant step forward for the Indonesians, but it appears as though they are overmatched in this one. Throughout the tournament, the Socceroos have feasted off their opponents' giveaways, and the Indonesians have been too inconsistent defensively for us to believe they can contain a well-balanced Aussie side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 62.99%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Indonesia had a probability of 16.29%.

The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.69%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.82%), while for a Indonesia win it was 0-1 (4.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Australia would win this match.

Result
AustraliaDrawIndonesia
62.99%20.72%16.29%
Both teams to score 52.1%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.29%43.71%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.9%66.1%
Australia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.75%13.25%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.96%40.04%
Indonesia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.05%39.95%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.4%76.6%
Score Analysis
    Australia 62.98%
    Indonesia 16.29%
    Draw 20.72%
AustraliaDrawIndonesia
2-0 @ 10.81%
1-0 @ 10.69%
2-1 @ 9.92%
3-0 @ 7.28%
3-1 @ 6.68%
4-0 @ 3.68%
4-1 @ 3.38%
3-2 @ 3.07%
4-2 @ 1.55%
5-0 @ 1.49%
5-1 @ 1.37%
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 62.98%
1-1 @ 9.82%
0-0 @ 5.29%
2-2 @ 4.55%
3-3 @ 0.94%
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 20.72%
0-1 @ 4.86%
1-2 @ 4.51%
0-2 @ 2.23%
2-3 @ 1.39%
1-3 @ 1.38%
Other @ 1.93%
Total : 16.29%

How you voted: 1st Group B vs 3rd Group A/C/D

1st Group B
71.4%
Draw
17.9%
3rd Group A/C/D
10.7%
28
rhs 2.0
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