Asian Cup

Asian Cup | Group Stage

Jan 15, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

Saoud Bin Abdulrahman Stadium

Indonesia
1 - 3
Iraq

Ferdinan (37')
Baggott (2'), Klok (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Ali (17'), Rashid (45+7'), Hussein (75')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Asian Cup clash between Indonesia and Iraq, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Indonesia

All competitions

Last Game: Indonesia 0-5 Iran
Tuesday, January 9 at 3pm in International Friendlies

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Japan	1	2	3
2	Iraq	0	0	0
3	Indonesia	0	0	0
4	Vietnam	1	-2	0

Iraq

All competitions

Last Game: Iraq 0-1 South Korea
Saturday, January 6 at 1pm in International Friendlies

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Japan	1	2	3
2	Iraq	0	0	0
3	Indonesia	0	0	0
4	Vietnam	1	-2	0

We said: Indonesia 0-3 Iraq

There is a lot of raw talent on this Indonesian side but not much experience in games of this magnitude, and they could be in for a hard lesson against Iraq. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iraq win with a probability of 46.1%. A win for Indonesia had a probability of 26.97% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iraq win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.9%) and 0-2 (8.86%). The likeliest Indonesia win was 1-0 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iraq would win this match.

Result
Indonesia	Draw	Iraq
26.97% ( 1.54)	26.93% ( 0.86)	46.1% ( -2.4)

Both teams to score 47.79% (

-1.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.22% (

-2.22)

56.78% (

2.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.28% (

-1.82)

77.72% (

1.82)

Indonesia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.39% (

0.09)

36.61% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.6% (

0.09)

73.4% (

-0.08)

Iraq Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.4% (

-2.08)

24.6% (

2.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.9% (

-3)

59.1% (

3.01)

Score Analysis

Indonesia 26.97%

Iraq 46.1%

Draw 26.93%

Indonesia	Draw	Iraq
1-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.77) 2-1 @ 6.38% ( 0.19) 2-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.39) 3-1 @ 2.14% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.14) 3-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.84% Total : 26.97%	1-1 @ 12.69% ( 0.34) 0-0 @ 9.01% ( 0.74) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.77% Total : 26.93%	0-1 @ 12.63% ( 0.31) 1-2 @ 8.9% ( -0.31) 0-2 @ 8.86% ( -0.33) 1-3 @ 4.16% ( -0.41) 0-3 @ 4.14% ( -0.42) 2-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.2) 1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.25) 0-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.25) Other @ 2.41% Total : 46.1%