Asian Cup

Asian Cup | Group Stage

Jan 17, 2024 at 11.30am UK

Al Thumama Stadium

Lebanon
0 - 0
China

Zhang (30')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Asian Cup clash between Lebanon and China, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lebanon

All competitions

Asian Cup

Last Game: Qatar 3-0 Lebanon
Friday, January 12 at 4pm in Asian Cup

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Qatar	1	3	3
2	China	1	0	1
3	Tajikistan	1	0	1
4	Lebanon	1	-3	0

China

All competitions

Asian Cup

Last Game: China 0-0 Tajikistan
Saturday, January 13 at 2.30pm in Asian Cup

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Qatar	1	3	3
2	China	1	0	1
3	Tajikistan	1	0	1
4	Lebanon	1	-3	0

Finding the back of the net in this competition has proven to be challenging for the Lebanese, who may still be feeling the frustration of their opening loss, knowing they had their chances to score. The experience of China in these situations has us leaning towards them narrowly winning this match, despite their form being well below what we are used to seeing at this tournament. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lebanon win with a probability of 44.27%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for China had a probability of 27.73%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lebanon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.75%) and 2-1 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%), while for a China win it was 0-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.

Result
Lebanon	Draw	China
44.27% ( -1.91)	28% ( 0.46)	27.73% ( 1.46)

Both teams to score 45.36% (

-0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.86% (

-0.81)

60.14% (

0.81)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.65% (

-0.62)

80.34% (

0.62)

Lebanon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.95% (

-1.34)

27.05% (

1.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.58% (

-1.79)

62.41% (

1.79)

China Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.18% (

0.79)

37.82% (

-0.79)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.4% (

0.76)

74.6% (

-0.75)

Score Analysis

Lebanon 44.26%

China 27.73%

Draw 28%

Lebanon	Draw	China
1-0 @ 13.37% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 8.75% ( -0.41) 2-1 @ 8.5% ( -0.21) 3-0 @ 3.81% ( -0.34) 3-1 @ 3.71% ( -0.24) 3-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 1.25% ( -0.16) 4-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.13) Other @ 1.87% Total : 44.26%	1-1 @ 13% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 4.13% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.63% Total : 28%	0-1 @ 9.95% ( 0.5) 1-2 @ 6.32% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.34) 1-3 @ 2.05% ( 0.11) 0-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.14) 2-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.67% Total : 27.73%