In a clash that will have significant ramifications on the fight for the title and the race for survival, defending Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen will welcome Hoffenheim to BayArena on Sunday.
Die Schwarzroten are in second place with 42 points – six behind Bayern Munich – and were held to a 2-2 draw by RB Leipzig on January 25, while Hoffenheim drew 2-2 with Eintracht Frankfurt on January 25 and are fourth last in 15th with 18 points.
Match preview
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Leverkusen will undoubtedly feel that they threw away all three points against Leipzig considering they were leading 2-0 by the 36th minute but conceded twice from just 0.73 xG.
Head coach Xabi Alonso may perhaps believe that his side have been unlucky from a defensive perspective this term given they have conceded 26 times in the Bundesliga despite only facing roughly 20 xG.
Die Schwarzroten secured automatic qualification for the Champions League's round of 16 on Wednesday when they beat Sparta Prague 2-0, and their sixth-placed finish has earned them a matchup against either Manchester City, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich or Celtic.
Alonso's side have been rampant in front of goal in the Bundesliga, scoring 25 times in their last nine outings in the top flight.
Though Leverkusen have lost one, drawn one and won one of their past three matches in all competitions, they triumphed in their previous 11 games.
The hosts boast a phenomenal record at BayArena having won 13 of their 16 home fixtures this term – losing one and drawing one - including each of their last eight.
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Opponents Hoffenheim will feel they should have beaten Eintracht Frankfurt last time out given they created three big chances, hit the woodwork twice and produced 16 attempts from inside the penalty area.
Die Kraichgauer were thoroughly outclassed by Leverkusen when they clashed against Leverkusen on September 14, losing 4-1 in a match where they faced over 3.5 xG, five big chances and a total of 20 shots.
Boss Christian Ilzer's side defeated Anderlecht 4-3 on Thursday in their final match of the Europa League's league phase, but victory was not enough to prevent their elimination from the tournament, with their 27th-placed finish sealing their exit.
To Ilzer's credit, his team have won two of their four most recent fixtures, as many as they had won in their prior 14.
The visitors have also triumphed in their past two away games by a cumulative score of 7-4, though they failed to win their previous 12 on the road, losing seven and drawing five in that period.
Team News
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Alonso will have to contend with the absence of midfielder Robert Andrich due to suspension, and that may mean Granit Xhaka will be partnered by Exequiel Palacios.
Defender Jeanuel Belocian has been ruled out for the rest of the season as a result of a cruciate ligament injury, though he would likely not have been selected ahead of regular centre-backs Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah and Piero Hincapie.
Florian Wirtz and Nathan Tella could support striker Patrik Schick given Martin Terrier is dealing with an Achilles tendon injury, while forward Victor Boniface may be an option given his move to Al Nassr has reportedly been called off.
Unfortunately for Hoffenheim, their injury crisis seems to be getting worse, with up to 14 players potentially set to miss out.
Goalkeeper Oliver Baumann is not available due to injury, and he will be joined on the sidelines by defenders Ozan Kabak, Christopher Lenz, Valentin Gendrey and Alexander Prass.
Expect a back four of Arthur Chaves, Robin Hranac, Kevin Akpoguma and David Jurasek to protect goalkeeper Luca Philipp.
Midfielders Diadie Samassekou, Anton Stach, Grischa Promel, Pavel Kaderabek and Umut Tohumcu will also miss out, so perhaps Dennis Geiger and Finn Ole Becker will start in a double pivot.
Gift Orban may lead the visitors' attack given the likes of Andrej Kramaric and Haris Tabakovic will not be in the matchday squad.
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapie; Frimpong, Xhaka, Palacios, Grimaldo; Tella, Wirtz; Schick
Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Philipp; Chaves, Hranac, Akpoguma, Jurasek; Geiger, Becker; Hlozek, Bischof, Yardimci; Orban
We say: Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Hoffenheim
It is difficult to overlook Hoffenheim's injury crisis, and it would be surprising if the visitors managed to put up much resistance on Sunday.
Leverkusen must ensure that Bayern do not extend the gap at the top of the table, and considering their good form in front of goal, they should be seen as strong favourites.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
