MX23RW : Monday, March 10 14:43:13| >> :60:980:980:
Atletico Madrid logo
Champions League | League Stage
Jan 21, 2025 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Leverkusen logo

Atletico
2 - 1
B. Leverkusen

Alvarez (52', 90')
Gimenez (45+2'), Simeone (66')
Barrios (25')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Hincapie (45+1')
Wirtz (44'), Tella (45+2'), Hincapie (45+4')
Hincapie (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Leganes 1-0 Atletico
Saturday, January 18 at 3.15pm in La Liga

We said: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen

This is such a tricky match to call considering Atletico's strength on home soil; Leverkusen will bring a seriously good winning run into this match, but Atletico's recent form has also been brilliant, and we are finding it incredibly difficult to separate the two teams. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 48.86%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 26.09% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawBayer Leverkusen
48.86% (-0.031000000000006 -0.03) 25.04% (0.004999999999999 0) 26.09% (0.023 0.02)
Both teams to score 52.73% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.99% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)50.01% (0.012 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.01% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)71.99% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.51% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)20.49% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.03% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)52.96% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.32% (0.013999999999996 0.01)33.68% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.66% (0.012 0.01)70.33% (-0.01400000000001 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 48.86%
    Bayer Leverkusen 26.09%
    Draw 25.03%
Atletico MadridDrawBayer Leverkusen
1-0 @ 10.93%
2-1 @ 9.44% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-0 @ 8.67% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.99% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-0 @ 4.58% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.71% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 1.98% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.82% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
4-2 @ 1.08% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 48.86%
1-1 @ 11.9%
0-0 @ 6.9% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-2 @ 5.14%
3-3 @ 0.98% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.03%
0-1 @ 7.51% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.48% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 4.09% (0.0049999999999999 0)
1-3 @ 2.35% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-3 @ 1.86% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.48% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 26.09%

How you voted: Atletico vs B. Leverkusen

Atletico Madrid
38.4%
Draw
30.1%
Bayer Leverkusen
31.5%
279
Head to Head
Oct 26, 2022 8pm
Group Stage
Atletico
2-2
B. Leverkusen
Carrasco (22'), De Paul (50')
Diaby (9'), Hudson-Odoi (29')
Sep 13, 2022 8pm
Group Stage
B. Leverkusen
2-0
Atletico
Andrich (84'), Diaby (87')
Nov 6, 2019 8pm
Oct 22, 2019 5.55pm
Mar 15, 2017 7.45pm
Round of 16
Atletico
0-0
B. Leverkusen
Gimenez (66'), Gaitan (89')
Jedvaj (64'), Baumgartlinger (71')
rhs 2.0
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