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PSG logo
Champions League | Final
Aug 23, 2020 at 8pm UK
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Bayern logo

PSG
0 - 1
Bayern


Paredes (52'), Neymar (81'), Silva (84'), Kurzawa (86')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Coman (59')
Davies (28'), Gnabry (52'), Sule (56'), Muller (90+4')

Preview: Champions League final: PSG vs. Bayern Munich - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews the 2020 Champions League final between Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and head-to-head records.

The Estadio da Luz plays host to the 2019-20 Champions League final on Sunday as first-time finalists Paris Saint-Germain take on five-time winners of the competition Bayern Munich.

Both teams comfortably made it through their semi-finals with 3-0 wins over RB Leipzig and Lyon respectively and will now battle to be crowned kings of Europe - a title which would complete an historic treble for either club.


Match preview

Bayern Munich's Serge Gnabry celebrates scoring against Lyon in the Champions League on August 19, 2020© Reuters

A fresh slice of history beckons in Lisbon for one of these giants as they face off in club football's most prestigious match, but their past history at this stage of the competition could barely be more different.

Bayern have been here and done it all before - only Real Madrid can top their tally of 11 European Cup and Champions League finals, while only Madrid, AC Milan and Liverpool have got their hands on the trophy more often.

It has not been all triumph and glory for the Bavarian juggernauts, though, and they have lost as many finals as they have won in this competition, Juventus being the only team to have been beaten more often at this stage.

PSG know all about despair in Europe's premier club competition; their recent history has been littered by high-profile failures and it remains impossible to consider their Champions League past without thoughts immediately going back to their Neymar-inspired 6-1 defeat to Barcelona in 2016-17.

Now with Neymar in their ranks and beginning to show the decisive influence PSG have been hoping for since his world-record move, the Ligue 1 giants have the chance to finally banish those memories and the hurt of seven successive seasons in which they failed to make it past the quarter-finals.

Paris Saint-Germain celebrate scoring against RB Leipzig in the Champions League on August 18, 2020© Reuters

The owners have made no secret of the fact that the Champions League is the holy grail for them and, after years of underachievement in the competition, it could be written in the stars for them to pull off their crowning glory in the club's 50th anniversary year.

Success at home is almost a given now for Le Parisiens, who have won 24 of the last 28 domestic trophies available to them, but victory on Sunday would see them finally join the top table of Europe's elite.

While that is the biggest and tastiest carrot for the owners, in time PSG's possible achievement of completing a clean sweep of trophies this season may be viewed as even more historic, having already wrapped up the Ligue 1, Coupe de France, Coupe de la Ligue and Trophee des Champions titles this season.

Celtic in 1966-67 are the only club to have ever lifted a quadruple of European Cup, domestic league, domestic cup and domestic league cup before, and PSG could take it as a good omen that their European Cup success famously came in Lisbon too.

No French club has ever completed the treble before either as PSG look to become only the ninth team to achieve that feat, but they are facing a Bayern side similarly familiar with a domestic monopoly on titles and with far more experience in Europe.

Bayern Munich players celebrate Thomas Muller's goal against Barcelona on August 14, 2020© Reuters

Indeed, Bayern won a treble of their own just seven years ago when they picked up their fifth Champions League crown, and victory on Sunday would see them join Barcelona as the only clubs to do so on two separate occasions.

The German outfit have been simply scintillating en route to the final, plundering an incredible 42 goals during a perfect 10 wins from 10 games in the competition this season.

An 8-2 obliteration of Barcelona in the quarter-finals was undoubtedly the most memorable of those wins, although amazingly it does have competition - Bayern have also beaten Tottenham Hotspur 7-2 and Red Star Belgrade 6-0 in one-off games, as well as hammering Chelsea 7-1 on aggregate.

Rarely, if ever, has there been a more emphatic route to the final, with Bayern already boasting the best goals-per-game ratio in Champions League history and needing three more goals to equal Barcelona's all-time record of 45 in a Champions League campaign - recorded over 16 games in 1999-00.

With such a record it is easy to forget that Bayern had been in some trouble earlier in the campaign, leading to Niko Kovac being sacked and replaced by Hansi Flick, who has since steered them back on to the right path.

Bayern boss Hansi Flick on May 30, 2020© Reuters

It is not only Bayern's European record which is formidable; German champions for an eighth year in a row, they come into this match having won 27 of their last 28 outings across all competitions including each of the last 19 - an unprecedented achievement for a German top-flight team.

Yet there is not quite an aura of invincibility about the team despite the results suggesting otherwise, and PSG will have taken belief from Lyon's performance in the semi-finals despite their fellow Ligue 1 side being on the end of a 3-0 defeat.

Bayern's clean sheet in that match was more down to some key saves from Manuel Neuer than any particularly robust defending in front of him, with Lyon capitalising on a high defensive line on more than one occasion without taking their chances.

It is difficult to see the likes of Neymar, Kylian Mbappe, Angel di Maria and Mauro Icardi being quite so wasteful if gifted the same chances, and it is also difficult to see Bayern changing the way they play given their ability to outscore any team.

Thomas Tuchel's side will therefore be confident that they will get opportunities, and with the best defence in the competition this season they also seem well-equipped to keep Bayern's own dangerous attackers at bay.

Paris Saint-German duo Neymar and Angel di Maria celebrate scoring against RB Leipzig in the Champions League in August 2020© Reuters

PSG's semi-final victory over RB Leipzig was more comfortable than Bayern's over Lyon, although their overall route to the final has not been quite as straightforward.

The French outfit needed to overcome a first-leg deficit to beat Borussia Dortmund in the last 16 before a dramatic stoppage-time comeback against Atalanta BC in the one-legged quarter-final - two goals in added-on time ending the Italian outfit's dream run.

However, PSG began their European campaign with a statement-making win over Real Madrid, and the Atalanta comeback in particular could prove to be a seminal moment for their fortunes in Europe.

Many would have been expecting a more difficult path towards a potential first Champions League crown than Atalanta and RB Leipzig in the quarters and semis respectively, but in Bayern they face arguably the biggest test in world football at the moment.

Sunday represents a tantalising opportunity to make themselves the team to beat, though, and if they are finally able to lift their most coveted prize aloft then there could be no doubting that they are worthy champions.

Paris Saint-Germain Champions League form: DWLWWW
Paris Saint-Germain form (all competitions): WWWWWW

Bayern Munich Champions League form: WWWWWW
Bayern Munich form (all competitions): WWWWWW


Road to the final

PSG

Paris Saint-Germain's Angel Di Maria scores against Real Madrid in the Champions League on September 18, 2019© Reuters

Group stage: PSG 3-0 Real Madrid
Group stage: Galatasaray 0-1 PSG
Group stage: Club Brugge 0-5 PSG
Group stage: PSG 1-0 Club Brugge
Group stage: Real Madrid 2-2 PSG
Group stage: PSG 5-0 Galatasaray

Last 16: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 PSG
Last 16: PSG 2-0 Borussia Dortmund

Quarter-final: Atalanta 1-2 PSG

Semi-final: RB Leipzig 0-3 PSG

> Click here for an in-depth look at PSG's road to the Champions League final

BAYERN MUNICH

Bayern Munich's Serge Gnabry celebrates scoring their third goal against Tottenham on October 1, 2019© Reuters

Group stage: Bayern Munich 3-0 Red Star Belgrade
Group stage: Tottenham Hotspur 2-7 Bayern Munich
Group stage: Olympiacos 2-3 Bayern Munich
Group stage: Bayern Munich 2-0 Olympiacos
Group stage: Red Star Belgrade 0-6 Bayern Munich
Group stage: Bayern Munich 3-1 Tottenham Hotspur

Last 16: Chelsea 0-3 Bayern Munich
Last 16: Bayern Munich 4-1 Chelsea

Quarter-final: Barcelona 2-8 Bayern Munich

Semi-final: Lyon 0-3 Bayern Munich

> Click here for an in-depth look at Bayern Munich's road to the Champions League final


Team News

Paris Saint-Germain's Keylor Navas goes off injured in the Champions League against Atalanta BC on August 12, 2020© Reuters

Both teams should have all of their superstar names available for this showdown, which will make for a star-studded occasion in Lisbon.

There are some injury doubts on both sides, though, and given Bayern's goalscoring pedigree PSG will be particularly hopeful of having first-choice goalkeeper Keylor Navas back available.

The Costa Rican was forced off with a thigh injury against Atalanta and subsequently missed the semi-final, leaving him as a major doubt for this match with Sergio Rico again set to deputise.

Layvin Kurzawa and Idrissa Gueye are also fitness doubts for Tuchel's side, but Marco Verratti did get some minutes towards the end of the semi-final and may earn a place back in the starting XI for the final as a result.

Icardi was a notable absentee from the starting lineup against Leipzig and, given how well the false nine system worked with Neymar, he may again be consigned to a place on the bench in Lisbon should Tuchel stick with a 4-3-3.

Bayern, meanwhile, will hope to be able to name an unchanged side from the semi-final but could be without Jerome Boateng, who picked up a knock in that match which forced him off at half time.

Flick has options in reserve - namely Niklas Sule, Lucas Hernandez and Javi Martinez - but he will give Boateng every opportunity to prove his fitness ahead of the game.

Boateng is one of four likely starters who were also involved in the 2012-13 treble-winning season, along with Manuel Neuer, David Alaba and Thomas Muller.

Thiago Alcantara could be playing his final game for the club if he is granted his wish to leave, while free-scoring Robert Lewandowski needs two goals to equal Cristiano Ronaldo's all-time record of 17 in a single Champions League campaign.

Paris Saint-Germain possible starting lineup:
Rico; Kehrer, Thiago Silva, Kimpembe, Bernat; Verratti, Marquinhos, Herrera; Di Maria, Neymar, Mbappe

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Kimmich, Boateng, Alaba, Davies; Goretzka, Thiago; Perisic, Muller, Gnabry; Lewandowski


Head To Head

These two sides have met on eight previous occasions, with all of those coming in the group stages of the Champions League.

It is PSG who boast the superior record in those head-to-head meetings, winning five compared to three victories for Bayern.

Only two of those past meetings have come since 2000, with the two sides trading victories in the 2017-18 group stages - PSG winning 3-0 in Paris and Bayern winning 3-1 in Munich.


SM words green background

We say: Paris Saint-Germain 2-3 Bayern Munich

Matches do not come much more enticing than this. A Champions League final between two teams that love to attack and are littered with potential match-winners - it is a showdown which almost guarantees goals, even accounting for the fact that such big occasions can often fail to live up to the hype.

PSG certainly have the tools to hurt Bayern and the pace of Mbappe and Neymar in particular could expose the high line the Germans have played with in the last two games, but Bayern have steamrolled their way into the final and it is difficult to look past them continuing a relentless winning run.

It is a game which has all the makings of a classic, but we are just siding with Bayern to lift the trophy at the end of it all.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a PSG win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data


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Written by
Barney Corkhill

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 40.65%. A win for Paris Saint-Germain had a probability of 37.74% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.01%) and 0-1 (4.69%). The likeliest Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.


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Game History

Who will win the 2020 Champions League final?

PSG
33.8%
Bayern Munich
66.2%
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Paris Saint-Germain's Kylian Mbappe celebrates with teammates after scoring against Celtic in a pre-season friendly on July 21, 2020
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League Phase

TeamPWDLPTS
1Liverpool660018
2Barcelona650115
3B. Leverkusen641113
4Inter Milan641113
5Brest641113
6Arsenal641113
7Aston Villa641113
8Lille641113
9Bayern640212
10Dortmund640212
11Atletico640212
12AC Milan640212
13Atalanta632111
14Juventus632111
15Benfica631210
16Feyenoord631210
17Brugge631210
18Monaco631210
19Sporting Lisbon631210
20Real Madrid63039
21Celtic62319
22Man City62228
23PSV62228
24Dinamo Zagreb62228
25PSG62137
26Stuttgart62137
27Shakhtar61144
28Sparta Prague61144
29Sturm Graz61053
30Girona61053
31Red Star61053
32Salzburg61053
33Bologna60242
34RB Leipzig60060
35Slovan Bratislava60060
36Young Boys60060


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