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Belenenses
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 18
Jan 16, 2022 at 8.30pm UK
Estádio do Restelo
Porto

Belenenses
1 - 4
Porto

Camara (13')
Sithole (4'), Calila (5'), Camara (26'), Safira (90')
Sithole (31'), Camara (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Evanilson (36', 58', 84'), Taremi (61')
Costa (7'), Pepe (66'), Uribe (90+2')

Preview: Belenenses vs. Porto - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Belenenses and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Sides at opposite ends of the Primeira Liga table will square off on Sunday, as league leaders Porto travel to take on basement side Belenenses.

The visitors now sit three points clear at the summit of the top flight, while their hosts suffered a disappointing defeat last time out to remain four points adrift of safety.


Match preview

Porto coach Sergio Conceicao reacts on January 8, 2022© Reuters

After comfortably avoiding relegation with a mid-table finish last season, Belenenses will have headed into the new campaign with similar aims, but things have not gone to plan for O Belem.

A run of just one win and eight points from the first 15 matches immediately saw them cut adrift at the foot of the table, with Filipe Candido replacing Petit in the hot seat during that time.

While he has not enjoyed much more success, O Belem did post a crucial victory after the turn of the year, with Abel Camara snatching all three points with a 93rd-minute winner to make it 2-1 at home to newly-promoted Arouca, before they had the chance to make it back-to-back wins with a clash against fellow strugglers Famalicao last time out.

Belenenses were unable to do so, though, as Riccieli hit the only goal of the game for the visitors, leaving Candido's men stuck at the foot of the table, three points behind Arouca and four points adrift of safety.

As a result, they will be desperate to quickly find a run of results, but Sunday presents a particularly tough challenge as the league leaders arrive in fine form.

Porto's Mehdi Taremi celebrates scoring their first goal with Chancel Mbemba and teammates on January 8, 2022© Reuters

Having set their sights on lifting the Primeira Liga title for the 30th time this term, Porto have enjoyed a strong start, having won 15 of their opening 17 games and drawn the other two.

In the process, Sergio Conceicao's men have netted 44 goals while allowing just 11 at the other end, and they now lead Sporting Lisbon by three points at the summit after the defending champions' recent slip.

The Portuguese giants head into Sunday's trip in a run of 12 straight wins in the top flight, recently seeing off title rivals Benfica in a 3-1 win before they battled hard to defeat sixth-placed Estoril Praia last time out.

Their hosts took a two-goal lead in the first half, but Conceicao's men came out firing from the break as Mehdi Taremi quickly found the net before Luis Diaz levelled and Francisco Conceicao, the son of the Dragoes boss, hit an 89th-minute winner.

Now with daylight between themselves and the chasing pack, Porto will go in search of a 13th straight league win to stretch their lead at the summit.

Belenenses Primeira Liga form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L

Belenenses form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L

Porto Primeira Liga form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Porto form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Porto's Luis Diaz pictured on October 19, 2021© Reuters

Belenenses are likely without Francisco Teixeira and Rafael Camacho through injuries, while full-back Carraca is ineligible to play against his parent club after arriving on loan from the Dragoes in the summer.

Candido deployed a slightly more positive system for the recent meeting with Famalicao, but, facing a particularly tough test, he is likely to switch back to O Belem's preferred system with five across the back line.

Porto have several selections of their own to deal with, as Joao Mario, Wilson Manafa, Marko Grujic, Ivan Marcano and Pepe are all expected to continue spells out of action through injuries.

Meanwhile, left-back Zaidu Sanusi is away on international duty with Nigeria at the Africa Cup of Nations, leaving Wendell to play in the back four.

While Francisco Conceicao boosted his claim for a starting berth with his winner last time out, Evanilson and Mehdi Taremi will likely continue to lead the line.

Winger Luis Diaz has been the attacking star for Os Dragoes so far this season, netting 13 goals and providing five assists in 16 Primeira Liga appearances.

Versatile midfielder Jesus Corona has also completed a switch to Sevilla, so Saravia - back from a loan spell at Internacional - could start at right-back.

Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Felipe; Cafu, Tavares, Ribeiro; Calila, Lukovic, Sithole, Sousa, Varela; Camara, Nuno

Porto possible starting lineup:
Costa; Saravia, Mbemba, Cardoso, Wendell; Otavio, Uribe, Oliveira, Diaz; Edenilson, Taremi


SM words green background

We say: Belenenses 0-3 Porto

Given the seasons that these two sides are having, we can only see Porto coming out as comfortable winners on Sunday.

Os Dragoes have shown themselves to be formidable at both ends of the pitch, and Conceicao's side should have far too much for their hosts.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Written by
Sam Varley

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 78.82%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 6.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.29%) and 0-3 (12.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.83%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (2.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Belenenses vs Porto

Belenenses
10.3%
Draw
3.4%
Porto
86.2%
29
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Porto's Luis Diaz pictured on October 19, 2021
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon14120243103336
2Porto1411123392434
3Benfica1310213282432
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara149051613327
5Braga147432516925
6Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes146441814422
7MoreirenseMoreirense146261919020
8FamalicaoFamalicao144731715219
9Casa Pia144551317-417
10Gil Vicente144461724-716
11Rio AveRio Ave144461525-1016
12Estoril PraiaEstoril143561221-914
13Nacional13337817-912
14AVS142661122-1112
15Estrela Amadora143381224-1212
16BoavistaBoavista142571019-911
17AroucaArouca14329823-1511
18SC FarenseFarense14239720-139


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