Sunday's Primeira Liga fixture at the Estadio da Luz sees second-placed Benfica welcome seventh-placed Arouca.
With just two league games remaining, the home side cannot close the eight-point gap to league winners Sporting Lisbon, while the away side are unable to achieve European football and can finish no lower than seventh.
Match preview
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Benfica's 2-0 loss against city rivals Famalicao last Sunday ended their hopes of winning the league as Ruben Amorim won his second title with Sporting.
The hosts will finish second in the Primeira Liga table and though they could accumulate 82 points, just two fewer than in 2022-23 when they won the title; fans will no doubt be disappointed that the Eagles have failed to build on the success of last season.
Manager Roger Schmidt was appointed in May 2022, and in 2023-24 his side won 16 of their first 20 league fixtures, losing just once in this period.
However, in their subsequent 12 games, they lost three times in hugely consequential matches against Sporting, Porto, and most recently against Famalicao.
While his team did win eight of those 12 games, Schmidt will look back at those losses as the moments that handed Sporting the title.
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Benfica will hope to end the season positively, especially after defeat to their local rivals last time out, as well as being eliminated from the Europa League on penalties by Marseille in mid-April.
The home side have a very good record against Sunday's opponents, with Arouca's last win over the Eagles in any competition coming in August 2015.
The visitors have since lost 10 times in a row against Benfica, losing by an aggregate scoreline of 26 goals to three, and this run included a 3-0 loss in this season's reverse fixture in January.
Arouca manager Daniel Sousa will hope to improve this record and help his side better last season's points total of 46 by securing at least a draw this weekend, taking his side's tally to 47.
The Arouca boss took charge in November 2023 following the dismissal of Daniel Ramos who oversaw just one victory in 11 Primeira Liga games this season, a run that culminated in seven consecutive losses that had left the club bottom of the table.
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Sousa's time in charge has been largely positive, with the former Gil Vicente coach boasting an impressive 1.9 points per game, the highest figure of any Arouca manager since the 2020-21 season when they finished third in Portugal's second division.
In fact, the visitors have only lost five league games under their current manager, and have won 12, drawing four.
During Sousa's 21 league games in charge, his team have scored 44 goals and conceded only 21 times, compared to nine goals scored and 17 goals conceded in their first 11 fixtures.
As for their recent form, Arouca are unbeaten in six Primeira Liga matches, drawing the last three.
Additionally, their away record has been fairly impressive this season, having lost just three of Sousa's 11 away league fixtures, while also going unbeaten in their last three.
Team News
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Benfica come into the game with 21-year-old centre-back Tomas Araujo in the final stages of recovery from a sprained ankle, and he could therefore be in contention for a place in the squad.
However, forward David Neres and right-back Alexander Bah are ruled out with thigh injuries, while defender Juan Bernat is still recovering following a groin operation.
As for the away side, Arouca have no injury concerns to contend with and manager Sousa should be able to pick from a full squad.
Expect top scorer Rafa Mujica to start up front, with his tally of 20 goals in the Primeira Liga bettered only by Simon Banza's 21 for Braga, and Viktor Gyokeres's 27 for Sporting Lisbon.
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Trubin; Morato, A Silva, Otamendi, Aursnes; Luis, Mario; Di Maria, Kokcu, R Silva; Cabral
Arouca possible starting lineup:
Thiago; Weverson, Montero, Rocha, Milovanov; Simao, Carvalho; Sylla, Cristo, Jason; Mujica
We say: Benfica 2-3 Arouca
Benfica could come into the weekend's fixtures deflated having recently lost out on the league title.
Considering this, as well as the fact that Arouca have been in great form under manager Sousa, the away side could take advantage.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
