Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 35.19%. A win for Sport Recife had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.11%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Sport Recife win was 1-0 (12.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.