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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 82.3%. A draw had a probability of 11.6% and a win for Heidenheim had a probability of 6.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.12%) and 4-0 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.46%), while for a Heidenheim win it was 1-2 (1.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayern Munich | Draw | Heidenheim |
82.3% ( -0.23) | 11.64% ( 0.15) | 6.06% ( 0.08) |
Both teams to score 47.58% ( -0.2) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
70.13% ( -0.47) | 29.87% ( 0.47) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
48.96% ( -0.57) | 51.04% ( 0.57) |
Bayern Munich Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.63% ( -0.13) | 5.37% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
78.92% ( -0.38) | 21.08% ( 0.38) |
Heidenheim Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.28% ( -0.14) | 49.72% ( 0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.54% ( -0.1) | 84.46% ( 0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Bayern Munich | Draw | Heidenheim |
2-0 @ 11.41% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 11.12% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 8.14% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.98% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 7.81% ( 0.15) 3-1 @ 7.78% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 5.69% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 4.76% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 3.33% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.03) 6-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.04) 5-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.03) 7-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.52% Total : 82.29% | 1-1 @ 5.46% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 2.79% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.67% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.72% Total : 11.64% | 1-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.29% Total : 6.06% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 12 | 30 | 33 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 29 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 27 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
5 | Freiburg | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 24 |
6 | Stuttgart | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 23 |
7 | Mainz 05Mainz | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 22 |
8 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 22 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 22 |
10 | Wolfsburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 21 |
11 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 16 |
14 | Hoffenheim | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 14 |
15 | St Pauli | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 11 |
16 | Heidenheim | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 37 | -23 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 3 |
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