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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 56.35%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 23.1% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.15%) and 1-3 (6.81%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 2-1 (5.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
Result | ||
St Pauli | Draw | Bayern Munich |
23.1% ( 0.29) | 20.56% ( 0.14) | 56.35% ( -0.43) |
Both teams to score 64.92% ( -0.13) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.54% ( -0.33) | 32.45% ( 0.33) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.9% ( -0.39) | 54.09% ( 0.39) |
St Pauli Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.44% ( 0.04) | 26.56% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.23% ( 0.05) | 61.76% ( -0.05) |
Bayern Munich Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.4% ( -0.23) | 11.6% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.41% ( -0.49) | 36.59% ( 0.48) |
Score Analysis |
St Pauli | Draw | Bayern Munich |
2-1 @ 5.83% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 4.08% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 2.58% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 3% Total : 23.1% | 1-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3.08% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.4% Total : 20.56% | 1-2 @ 9.48% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.15% ( -0) 1-3 @ 6.81% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 6.64% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 5.13% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 4.51% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 3.67% ( -0.06) 0-4 @ 2.76% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 2.43% ( -0.04) 1-5 @ 1.58% ( -0.04) 0-5 @ 1.19% ( -0.03) 3-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.02) 2-5 @ 1.05% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.89% Total : 56.35% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 37 | 8 | 29 | 30 |
2 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 26 |
3 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 23 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 21 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 20 |
6 | Stuttgart | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 20 |
7 | Freiburg | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 20 |
8 | Mainz 05Mainz | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 19 |
9 | Wolfsburg | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 18 |
10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 17 |
11 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 16 |
12 | Werder Bremen | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 16 |
13 | Augsburg | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 15 |
14 | Hoffenheim | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 12 |
15 | St Pauli | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 11 |
16 | Heidenheim | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 31 | -18 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 33 | -23 | 2 |
> Bundesliga Full Table |