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Bundesliga | Gameweek 10
Nov 9, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Millerntor-Stadion
Bayern logo

St Pauli
0 - 1
Bayern


Guilavogui (64'), Blessin (65'), Saliakas (66')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Musiala (22')
Min-jae (66'), Laimer (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between St Pauli and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Hoffenheim 0-2 St Pauli
Saturday, November 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 1-0 Benfica
Wednesday, November 6 at 8.15pm in Champions League

We said: St Pauli 0-4 Bayern Munich

Given the sheer number of attacking absentees for St Pauli, it is difficult to see how they can pose an offensive challenge to Bayern. Additionally, the visitors have been exceptional goalscorers away from home this season, and they could score multiple times in their clash at Millerntor-Stadion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 56.35%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 23.1% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.15%) and 1-3 (6.81%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 2-1 (5.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
St PauliDrawBayern Munich
23.1% (0.291 0.29) 20.56% (0.139 0.14) 56.35% (-0.434 -0.43)
Both teams to score 64.92% (-0.13 -0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.54% (-0.334 -0.33)32.45% (0.33 0.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.9% (-0.38999999999999 -0.39)54.09% (0.387 0.39)
St Pauli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.44% (0.037999999999997 0.04)26.56% (-0.041 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.23% (0.052999999999997 0.05)61.76% (-0.055 -0.05)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.4% (-0.22500000000001 -0.23)11.6% (0.221 0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.41% (-0.486 -0.49)36.59% (0.483 0.48)
Score Analysis
    St Pauli 23.1%
    Bayern Munich 56.35%
    Draw 20.56%
St PauliDrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 5.83% (0.065 0.07)
1-0 @ 4.08% (0.077 0.08)
3-2 @ 2.78% (0.01 0.01)
2-0 @ 2.71% (0.054 0.05)
3-1 @ 2.58% (0.032 0.03)
3-0 @ 1.2% (0.026 0.03)
4-2 @ 0.92% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3%
Total : 23.1%
1-1 @ 8.8% (0.087999999999999 0.09)
2-2 @ 6.28% (0.014 0.01)
0-0 @ 3.08% (0.054 0.05)
3-3 @ 1.99% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 20.56%
1-2 @ 9.48% (0.011000000000001 0.01)
0-2 @ 7.15% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-3 @ 6.81% (-0.054 -0.05)
0-1 @ 6.64% (0.059 0.06)
0-3 @ 5.13% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
2-3 @ 4.51% (-0.03 -0.03)
1-4 @ 3.67% (-0.062 -0.06)
0-4 @ 2.76% (-0.05 -0.05)
2-4 @ 2.43% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-5 @ 1.58% (-0.041 -0.04)
0-5 @ 1.19% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-4 @ 1.07% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-5 @ 1.05% (-0.026 -0.03)
Other @ 2.89%
Total : 56.35%

How you voted: St Pauli vs Bayern

St Pauli
7.8%
Draw
7.8%
Bayern Munich
84.3%
102
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern129303782930
2Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1282231161526
3Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen126512819923
4RB Leipzig126331914521
5Borussia DortmundDortmund126242319420
6Stuttgart135532623320
7Freiburg126241616020
8Mainz 05Mainz125432014619
9Wolfsburg125342519618
10Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach125251817117
11Union BerlinUnion Berlin134451214-216
12Werder Bremen124441924-516
13Augsburg124351423-915
14Hoffenheim123361724-712
15St Pauli123271015-511
16Heidenheim123181524-910
17Holstein Kiel121291331-185
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1202101033-232


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