Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 18

Jan 28, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

Coface Arena

Mainz
5 - 2
VfL Bochum

Jae-sung (1'), Widmer (17'), Onisiwo (28', 57', 87')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Kunde (70'), Masovic (72')
Schlotterbeck (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and VfL Bochum, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Last Game: Mainz 1-2 Dortmund
Wednesday, January 25 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

VfL Bochum

All competitions

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 2-0 VfL Bochum
Wednesday, January 25 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Mainz 05 1-1 VfL Bochum

With both teams defeated in midweek, we can envisage each manager aiming to keep things tight at the MEWA Arena on Saturday, especially given their lowly positions in the league table. As such, it would be little surprise to see Mainz draw 1-1 for the fifth time already this season, which would represent a decent result for both teams in their current situations. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 52.51%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 23.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a VfL Bochum win it was 0-1 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	VfL Bochum
52.51% ( -0.14)	24.11% ( 0.03)	23.37% ( 0.12)

Both teams to score 52.85% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.49% (

-0.01)

48.5% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.37% (

-0.01)

70.63% (

0.01)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.57% (

-0.06)

18.43% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.4% (

-0.1)

49.6% (

0.1)

VfL Bochum Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.8% (

0.1)

35.2% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.04% (

0.11)

71.95% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 52.51%

VfL Bochum 23.37%

Draw 24.1%

Mainz 05	Draw	VfL Bochum
1-0 @ 10.97% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.69% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.28% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 5.46% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.23% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.85% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.31% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.21% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0) Other @ 3.32% Total : 52.51%	1-1 @ 11.45% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.49% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.1%	0-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 3.54% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.01% Total : 23.37%