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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 80.13%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 6.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.92%) and 1-0 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.09%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (2.2%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayern Munich | Draw | Mainz 05 |
80.13% ( 0.08) | 12.9% ( -0.05) | 6.97% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 47.55% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.37% ( 0.11) | 32.63% ( -0.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.7% ( 0.13) | 54.3% ( -0.13) |
Bayern Munich Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.69% ( 0.04) | 6.32% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
76.24% ( 0.11) | 23.76% ( -0.1) |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.75% ( 0) | 49.25% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.87% | 84.13% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Bayern Munich | Draw | Mainz 05 |
2-0 @ 11.86% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.59% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.4% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.74% ( 0) 4-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 5.34% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 2.95% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( 0) 6-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.64% Total : 80.12% | 1-1 @ 6.09% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.11% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 2.98% ( -0) Other @ 0.73% Total : 12.9% | 0-1 @ 2.2% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.61% Total : 6.97% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 13 | 34 | 36 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 37 | 21 | 16 | 32 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 27 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 27 |
5 | Mainz 05Mainz | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 25 |
6 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 25 |
7 | Werder Bremen | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 25 |
8 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 24 |
9 | Freiburg | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 24 |
10 | Stuttgart | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Wolfsburg | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 21 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 16 |
14 | St Pauli | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 14 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 14 |
16 | Heidenheim | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 8 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 35 | -22 | 6 |
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