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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 12
Oct 29, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
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Bayern
6 - 2
Mainz

Gnabry (5'), Musiala (28'), Mane (43'), Goretzka (58'), Tel (79'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (86')
Pavard (88')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Widmer (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82')
Fernandes (34')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Barcelona 0-3 Bayern
Wednesday, October 26 at 8pm in Champions League

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 5-0 FC Koln
Friday, October 21 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayern Munich 3-0 Mainz 05

 We expect Bayern to have too much class for Mainz, despite the visitors' decent form across their last few matches. The Bavarians have won seven of their last eight matches in all competitions since the international break, and they will be determined to return to the top of the Bundesliga and place significant pressure on Union Berlin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 80.13%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 6.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.92%) and 1-0 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.09%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (2.2%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern MunichDrawMainz 05
80.13% (0.081999999999994 0.08) 12.9% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05) 6.97% (-0.031 -0.03)
Both teams to score 47.55% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.37% (0.113 0.11)32.63% (-0.11 -0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.7% (0.13 0.13)54.3% (-0.126 -0.13)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.69% (0.042000000000002 0.04)6.32% (-0.0371 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
76.24% (0.107 0.11)23.76% (-0.102 -0.1)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.75% (0.00099999999999767 0)49.25% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.87%84.13% (0.0039999999999907 0)
Score Analysis
    Bayern Munich 80.12%
    Mainz 05 6.97%
    Draw 12.9%
Bayern MunichDrawMainz 05
2-0 @ 11.86% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
3-0 @ 10.92% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.59% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.4% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.74% (0.0040000000000004 0)
4-0 @ 7.54% (0.02 0.02)
4-1 @ 5.34% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
5-0 @ 4.17% (0.02 0.02)
5-1 @ 2.95% (0.014 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.74% (0.0020000000000002 0)
6-0 @ 1.92% (0.014 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.89% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
6-1 @ 1.36% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
5-2 @ 1.05% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 80.12%
1-1 @ 6.09% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-0 @ 3.11% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-2 @ 2.98% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.73%
Total : 12.9%
0-1 @ 2.2% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-2 @ 2.16% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 6.97%

How you voted: Bayern vs Mainz

Bayern Munich
85.1%
Draw
7.4%
Mainz 05
7.4%
121
Head to Head
Apr 30, 2022 2.30pm
Mainz 05
3-1
Bayern
Burkardt (18'), Niakhate (27'), Barreiro (57')
Lewandowski (33')
Kimmich (43'), Hernandez (65'), Pavard (73'), Sane (86')
Dec 11, 2021 2.30pm
Bayern
2-1
Mainz 05
Coman (53'), Musiala (74')
Musiala (27'), Sane (36'), Hernandez (56')
Onisiwo (22')
Stach (59'), Hack (89'), Stoger (90+1')
> Preview
Apr 24, 2021 2.30pm
Mainz 05
2-1
Bayern
Burkardt (3'), Quaison (37')
Mwene (58'), St Juste (59'), da Costa (87')
Lewandowski (90+4')
Boateng (36'), Goretzka (41'), Alaba (42'), Lewandowski (73')
Jan 3, 2021 5pm
Bayern
5-2
Mainz 05
Kimmich (50'), Sane (55'), Sule (70'), Lewandowski (76' pen., 83')
Boateng (32'), Alaba (62')
Burkardt (32'), Hack (44')
Boetius (59')
Feb 1, 2020 2.30pm
Mainz 05
1-3
Bayern
St Juste (45')
St Juste (57'), Boetius (87'), Latza (88')
Lewandowski (8'), Muller (14'), Alcantara (26')
Goretzka (64')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern20163162194351
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen20136149272245
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt20115445271838
4RB Leipzig209653429533
5Stuttgart209563730732
6Mainz 05Mainz209473324931
7Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach209383230230
8Werder Bremen208663436-230
9Freiburg209382736-930
10Wolfsburg208574335829
11Borussia DortmundDortmund208573634229
12Augsburg207582435-1126
13St Pauli2063111822-421
14Union BerlinUnion Berlin205691627-1121
15Hoffenheim2046102640-1418
16Heidenheim2042142542-1714
17Holstein Kiel2033143152-2112
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum2024141744-2710
> Bundesliga Full Table


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