Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 17

Jan 13, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

OPEL ARENA

Mainz
1 - 1
Wolfsburg

Widmer (61')
Widmer (3'), van den Berg (46'), Fernandes (56')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Cerny (12')
Vranckx (16'), Jenz (27'), Casteels (54'), Svanberg (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Wolfsburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Feyenoord 1-2 Mainz
Saturday, January 6 at 11.30am in Club Friendlies 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Wolfsburg

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Wolfsburg 1-2 Bayern
Wednesday, December 20 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Mainz 05 1-1 Wolfsburg

Neither side were scoring freely prior to the winter break, and it is difficult to imagine things changing much here. The respective teamsheets could prove telling, as if either manager opts to switch from a back five to a back four, that could suggest a more offensive gameplan. Given Mainz's precarious position in the table and Wolfsburg's poor away form this season, we can envisage these sides sharing the spoils. This would represent a reasonably positive start to 2024 for both teams. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 44.69%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.01%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Wolfsburg
30.73% ( 0.05)	24.57% ( -0.07)	44.69% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 57.51% (

0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.77% (

0.33)

45.23% (

-0.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.43% (

0.31)

67.57% (

-0.32)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.2% (

0.2)

27.8% (

-0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.61% (

0.26)

63.39% (

-0.26)

Wolfsburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.66% (

0.14)

20.34% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.27% (

0.22)

52.73% (

-0.22)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 30.73%

Wolfsburg 44.69%

Draw 24.57%

Mainz 05	Draw	Wolfsburg
2-1 @ 7.38% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.24% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 4.63% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.15% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 1.98% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.84% Total : 30.73%	1-1 @ 11.52% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 5.65% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.57%	1-2 @ 9.18% ( 0) 0-1 @ 9.01% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 7.17% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 4.87% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 3.81% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.94% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.24% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.84% Total : 44.69%