Champions League

Champions League | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Apr 30, 2024 at 8pm UK

Allianz Arena

Bayern
2 - 2
Real Madrid

(Real Madrid win 4-3 on aggregate)

Sane (50'), Kane (62' pen.)
Mazraoui (46'), Min-jae (72')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Junior (29', 89' pen.)
Kroos (67'), Vazquez (85+1')

Bayern Munich's Harry Kane breaks Champions League record in Real Madrid draw

Bayern Munich forward Harry Kane sets a new Champions League record in Tuesday's 2-2 draw in the first leg of their semi-final tie against Real Madrid.

May 1, 00:40

Real Madrid's Luka Modric pictured on December 17, 2023

Luka Modric sets record for Real Madrid in Bayern Munich clash

Luka Modric broke a long-standing Real Madrid record in Tuesday's Champions League semi-final first leg against Bayern Munich.

May 1, 14:26

Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti before the match on March 5, 2024

"He'll be back to his best" - Carlo Ancelotti defends Real Madrid star

Real Madrid head coach Carlo Ancelotti insists that Jude Bellingham will "be back to his best" for the capital giants next week.

May 1, 15:20

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayern Munich

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Bayern 2-1 Frankfurt
Saturday, April 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Real Madrid

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Real Sociedad 0-1 Real Madrid
Friday, April 26 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 53.12%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 24.98% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.6%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 1-2 (6.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
Bayern Munich	Draw	Real Madrid
53.12% ( -0.12)	21.9% ( 0.04)	24.98% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 62.26% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.07% (

-0.11)

36.93% (

0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.89% (

-0.12)

59.11% (

0.12)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.96% (

-0.07)

14.05% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.39% (

-0.15)

41.61% (

0.15)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.43% (

27.57%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.91% (

63.09% (

Score Analysis

Bayern Munich 53.12%

Real Madrid 24.98%

Draw 21.9%

Bayern Munich	Draw	Real Madrid
2-1 @ 9.61% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.46% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.29% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.88% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 4.05% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.09% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.4% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.6% Total : 53.12%	1-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.19% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.87% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.31% Total : 21.9%	1-2 @ 6.31% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.21% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.71% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.66% 0-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.72% Total : 24.98%