Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Dec 12, 2023 at 8pm UK

Helsingin olympiastadion

Union Berlin
2 - 3
Real Madrid

Volland (45+1'), Kral (85')
Khedira (35'), Laidouni (76')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Joselu (61', 72'), Ceballos (89')
Bellingham (35'), Alaba (55')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Union Berlin 3-1 Borussia M'bach
Saturday, December 9 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Real Madrid

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Betis 1-1 Real Madrid
Saturday, December 9 at 3.15pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 63.61%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 16.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.92%) and 0-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.4%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 2-1 (4.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Union Berlin	Draw	Real Madrid
16.34% ( 0)	20.05%	63.61% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 54.5% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.42% (

40.58% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.04% (

62.96% (

-0.01)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.02% (

37.98% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.25% (

74.75% (

-0.01)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.88% (

-0)

12.12% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.31% (

-0)

37.69% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Union Berlin 16.34%

Real Madrid 63.61%

Draw 20.05%

Union Berlin	Draw	Real Madrid
2-1 @ 4.55% ( 0) 1-0 @ 4.46% 2-0 @ 2.16% 3-2 @ 1.55% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.47% ( 0) Other @ 2.16% Total : 16.34%	1-1 @ 9.4% 2-2 @ 4.8% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.6% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.09% Other @ 0.15% Total : 20.05%	0-2 @ 10.25% 1-2 @ 9.92% 0-1 @ 9.71% ( -0) 0-3 @ 7.21% ( -0) 1-3 @ 6.98% 0-4 @ 3.81% ( -0) 1-4 @ 3.68% 2-3 @ 3.38% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.78% 0-5 @ 1.61% ( -0) 1-5 @ 1.56% Other @ 3.72% Total : 63.61%