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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 44.72%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.4%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Burnley win was 1-2 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.
Result | ||
Luton Town | Draw | Burnley |
44.72% ( 0.63) | 24.12% ( 0.02) | 31.16% ( -0.65) |
Both teams to score 59.32% ( -0.39) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.04% ( -0.37) | 42.95% ( 0.37) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.64% ( -0.37) | 65.35% ( 0.37) |
Luton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.6% ( 0.12) | 19.4% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.79% ( 0.19) | 51.21% ( -0.19) |
Burnley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.6% ( -0.59) | 26.4% ( 0.59) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.44% ( -0.79) | 61.56% ( 0.79) |
Score Analysis |
Luton Town | Draw | Burnley |
2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 8.4% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 3.77% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0) Other @ 3.18% Total : 44.72% | 1-1 @ 11.18% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.11% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.12% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.11% | 1-2 @ 7.45% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 6.82% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 3.31% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.07) 1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 0.9% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.31% Total : 31.16% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 45 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 42 |
3 | Burnley | 21 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 41 |
4 | Sunderland | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 40 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 34 |
7 | Watford | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 34 |
8 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 32 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 29 |
10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 27 |
11 | Bristol City | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 26 |
13 | Millwall | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 25 |
14 | Derby CountyDerby | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
15 | Coventry CityCoventry | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 24 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 21 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 22 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 21 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 22 |
19 | Luton TownLuton | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 22 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 18 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 18 |
22 | Portsmouth | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 17 |
23 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 17 |
24 | Hull City | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 16 |
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