Premier League | Gameweek 21
Jan 12, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Turf Moor
Burnley1 - 1Luton
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Spurs 1-0 Burnley
Friday, January 5 at 8pm in FA Cup
Friday, January 5 at 8pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Luton 0-0 Bolton
Sunday, January 7 at 2pm in FA Cup
Sunday, January 7 at 2pm in FA Cup
We said: Burnley 1-1 Luton Town
Premier League matches between newly-promoted sides this season have averaged a whopping 4.3 goals per game, although if both sides' FA Cup showings are anything to go by, attacking sparks may not fly at Turf Moor. While we have faith in Burnley to avoid matching the unwanted home losing record, it is difficult to back Kompany's goal-shy troops to prevail with any real conviction, and a Luton side who have shown plenty of fight in recent top-flight fixtures can certainly hope for a point on Friday. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 47.59%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 27.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Burnley | Draw | Luton Town |
47.59% ( -0.01) | 24.45% ( -0) | 27.96% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 56.16% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
