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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 56.44%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 20.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.99%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (6.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Norwich City would win this match.
Result | ||
Norwich City | Draw | Birmingham City |
56.44% ( -3.06) | 23.13% ( 0.86) | 20.43% ( 2.19) |
Both teams to score 52% ( 0.96) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.31% ( -0.58) | 47.69% ( 0.58) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.11% ( -0.54) | 69.89% ( 0.54) |
Norwich City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.3% ( -1.24) | 16.69% ( 1.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.42% ( -2.27) | 46.58% ( 2.27) |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.42% ( 2.05) | 37.58% ( -2.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.64% ( 1.95) | 74.36% ( -1.96) |
Score Analysis |
Norwich City | Draw | Birmingham City |
1-0 @ 11.23% ( -0.2) 2-0 @ 10.05% ( -0.62) 2-1 @ 9.84% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 6% ( -0.65) 3-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.28) 3-2 @ 2.87% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 2.68% ( -0.42) 4-1 @ 2.63% ( -0.25) 4-2 @ 1.29% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.2) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.08% Total : 56.44% | 1-1 @ 10.99% ( 0.41) 0-0 @ 6.27% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 4.81% ( 0.24) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.12% | 0-1 @ 6.14% ( 0.47) 1-2 @ 5.38% ( 0.48) 0-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.38) 1-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.24) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.17) Other @ 1.6% Total : 20.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sunderland | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 31 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 29 |
4 | Burnley | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 27 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 25 |
6 | Watford | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 25 |
7 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 24 |
8 | Millwall | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 23 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 22 |
11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 19 |
12 | Derby CountyDerby | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 19 |
13 | Stoke CityStoke | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 19 |
14 | Norwich CityNorwich | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 18 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 18 |
16 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 17 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 16 |
18 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 16 |
19 | Hull City | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 15 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 15 |
21 | Luton TownLuton | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 15 |
22 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 15 |
23 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
24 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 10 |
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