We said: America Mineiro 1-0 Botafogo
The home side have come away with either a win or a draw in all eight fixtures between these two teams domestically, and we expect that trend to continue on Thursday.
Do not let their goals in the third round fool you, as neither side have shown that same quality against most of the teams in the top flight, but home field should give America a slight edge, though we do not anticipate there will be a lot of scoring opportunities on either end.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 42.17%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 31.39% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 0-1 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.
0.17) 
-0.18) 
