Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 19, 2022 at 3am UK
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Alianza Lima0 - 2Fortaleza
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Fortaleza 1-1 Goias
Friday, June 10 at 12am in Brasileiro
Friday, June 10 at 12am in Brasileiro
Next Game: Fortaleza vs. Athletico PR
Sunday, June 12 at 11pm in Brasileiro
Sunday, June 12 at 11pm in Brasileiro
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Atletico Goianiense | 10 | -5 | 10 |
| 19 | Juventude | 10 | -7 | 10 |
| 20 | Fortaleza | 10 | -6 | 6 |
We said: Alianza Lima 1-2 Fortaleza
Fortaleza managed to beat Alianza Lima 2-1 on matchday three, and we think that we could see a repeat of that result, especially as the Peruvian side have lost 24 of their previous 27 Copa Libertadores contests. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 29.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 1-2 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Alianza Lima | Draw | Fortaleza |
45.75% ( -0.14) | 24.55% ( 0.02) | 29.7% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 57.02% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.38% ( -0.04) | 45.62% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.05% ( -0.04) | 67.94% ( 0.04) |
| Alianza Lima Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.96% ( -0.08) | 20.04% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 47.75% ( -0.12) | 52.25% ( 0.12) |
| Fortaleza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.31% ( 0.06) | 28.69% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.49% ( 0.07) | 64.51% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
Alianza Lima 45.75%
Fortaleza 29.7%
Draw 24.54%
| Alianza Lima | Draw | Fortaleza |
| 2-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.24% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.43% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.97% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.98% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.1% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.6% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.91% Total : 45.75% | 1-1 @ 11.53% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.79% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.75% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.54% | 1-2 @ 7.21% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.87% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.63% Total : 29.7% |
How you voted: Alianza Lima vs Fortaleza
Alianza Lima
21.4%Draw
14.3%Fortaleza
64.3%14
Head to Head
Apr 27, 2022 11pm
Form Guide
