Argentinian side Defensa y Justicia host Ecuadorian outfit Independiente del Valle in their final group stage encounter of the Copa Libertadores on Thursday.
The hosts have already qualified for the last 16, while the visitors can only finish as high as third in Group A, which would see them progress into the Copa Sudamericana.
Match preview
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Defensa y Justicia caused a real upset in their last group match when they secured a thrilling 4-3 victory away at Copa Libertadores holders Palmeiras last week.
A lively first-half showing saw both sides head into the break level with the score at 2-2 and the second half proved just as enthralling.
Gustavo Scarpa cancelled out Matias Rodriguez's 52nd-minute effort to make it 3-3, before a 94th-minute winning header from Defensa forward Braian Romero sealed a dramatic win for the visitors.
That result guaranteed their place in the last 16 and they will finish the group stage in second place with one game to spare.
Head coach Sebastian Beccacece will have been delighted that his side were able to make amends for what happened in last year's competition.
In 2020, the Hawks lost their last two matches in the group stage and finished a point behind Ecuadorian side Delfin, losing a spot in the last 16.
This time around, Defensa can relax heading into their final game in Group A, with nothing riding on the fixture.
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As for Independiente del Valle, they have failed to qualify for the knockout stages for the third time in the last four years, after suffering a 3-2 away defeat to Universitario last week.
Despite the visitors dominating the match with 64% possession and 17 shots on goal, Nelinho Quina's 71st-minute strike proved to be the winner for the hosts, who claimed their first victory in this year's competition.
Los Negriazules, who reached the Copa Libertadores final in 2016, have struggled to replicate that triumph or even get close to the latter stages.
All that is left to fight for now is a place in the Copa Sudamericana, a competition they won for the first time in 2019.
As long as Independiente match or better the result of Universitario on Thursday, then Renato Paiva's side will complete Group A in third place and progress into South America's second-most prestigious club competition.
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Team News
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Defensa trio Romero, Franco Paredes and Fernando Meza all recovered from coronavirus to feature in last week's game, and they are expected to be involved again on Thursday.
The latter could be handed a start at the expense of Adonis Frias, while Lautaro Escalante could replace Raul Loaiza in central midfield.
As for Independiente del Valle, Jose Maria Carrasco will miss another match for the Ecuadorians as he continues to recover from a knee injury, while left-back Beder Caicedo is ruled out with a tibia fracture.
Paiva is not expected to make too many changes to his starting lineup but may recall attacking midfielder Efren Mera, which would likely see Pedro Vite drop to the bench.
Defensa y Justicia possible starting lineup:
Unsain; Britez, Rodriguez, Meza; Rodriguez, Tripichio, Escalante, Fernandez, Rotondi; Bou, Romero
Independiente del Valle possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Schunke, Tenorio, Segovia; Cheme, Pellerano, Faravelli, Sanchez; Mera; Ortiz, Montenegro
We say: Defensa y Justicia 1-1 Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle know that a victory on Thursday will see them qualify for the Copa Sudamericana and so the incentive is there for them to perform and bounce back from last week's defeat.
However, there is little to separate the two teams heading into this encounter and a repeat of last month's 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture could be on the cards.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 48.99%. A win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 28.37% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.41%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Independiente del Valle win was 1-2 (6.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.
