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EFL Cup
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EFL Cup | Third Round
Oct 1, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
St. James' Park
AFC Wimbledon

Newcastle
1 - 0
AFC Wimbledon

Schar (45+1' pen.)
Longstaff (55')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Biler (45'), Hippolyte (52')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Newcastle United and AFC Wimbledon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newcastle United

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Newcastle 1-1 Man City
Saturday, September 28 at 12.30pm in Premier League

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Bradford 0-0 AFC Wimbledon
Saturday, September 21 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Newcastle United 3-1 AFC Wimbledon

 AFC Wimbledon are enjoying an excellent start to the season, and they will enter this match in strong form. We are struggling to see anything other than a comfortable home success on Tuesday, but the visitors should be able to give their supporters a goal to cheer. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 51.55%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 26.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.75%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-2 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
Newcastle UnitedDrawAFC Wimbledon
51.55% (-1.529 -1.53) 22.35% (0.415 0.42) 26.1% (1.114 1.11)
Both teams to score 61.84% (-0.31 -0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.01% (-0.921 -0.92)37.99% (0.921 0.92)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.74% (-0.99 -0.99)60.26% (0.99 0.99)
Newcastle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.07% (-0.82400000000001 -0.82)14.93% (0.823 0.82)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.68% (-1.591 -1.59)43.32% (1.59 1.59)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.69% (0.336 0.34)27.31% (-0.336 -0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.25% (0.435 0.44)62.75% (-0.434 -0.43)
Score Analysis
    Newcastle United 51.55%
    AFC Wimbledon 26.1%
    Draw 22.34%
Newcastle UnitedDrawAFC Wimbledon
2-1 @ 9.57% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
1-0 @ 7.75% (0.116 0.12)
2-0 @ 7.37% (-0.106 -0.11)
3-1 @ 6.07% (-0.211 -0.21)
3-0 @ 4.67% (-0.208 -0.21)
3-2 @ 3.94% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)
4-1 @ 2.89% (-0.189 -0.19)
4-0 @ 2.22% (-0.169 -0.17)
4-2 @ 1.87% (-0.104 -0.1)
5-1 @ 1.1% (-0.107 -0.11)
Other @ 4.1%
Total : 51.55%
1-1 @ 10.06% (0.24 0.24)
2-2 @ 6.21% (0.029 0.03)
0-0 @ 4.08% (0.178 0.18)
3-3 @ 1.7% (-0.026 -0.03)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 22.34%
1-2 @ 6.53% (0.219 0.22)
0-1 @ 5.29% (0.278 0.28)
0-2 @ 3.43% (0.211 0.21)
1-3 @ 2.83% (0.12 0.12)
2-3 @ 2.69% (0.037 0.04)
0-3 @ 1.49% (0.104 0.1)
1-4 @ 0.92% (0.047 0.05)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 26.1%

How you voted: AFC Wimbledon vs Newcastle

AFC Wimbledon
31.3%
Newcastle United
68.7%
115
rhs 2.0
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