EFL Trophy | Group Stage
Oct 10, 2023 at 7pm UK
Meadow Lane Stadium
Notts County1 - 2Derby
Coverage of the EFL Trophy Group Stage clash between Notts County and Derby County.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Barrow 1-1 Notts County
Saturday, October 7 at 3pm in League Two
Saturday, October 7 at 3pm in League Two
Goals
for
for
27
Last Game: Cheltenham 1-1 Derby
Saturday, October 7 at 3pm in League One
Saturday, October 7 at 3pm in League One
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.76%) and 2-0 (5.61%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-2 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Notts County | Draw | Derby County |
40.9% ( -2.34) | 23.37% ( 0.07) | 35.73% ( 2.28) |
| Both teams to score 63.67% ( 0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.07% ( 0.26) | 37.93% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.81% ( 0.27) | 60.19% ( -0.27) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.02% ( -0.89) | 18.98% ( 0.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 49.48% ( -1.5) | 50.52% ( 1.51) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.58% ( 1.33) | 21.42% ( -1.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.58% ( 2.01) | 54.42% ( -2.01) |
| Score Analysis |
Notts County 40.9%
Derby County 35.73%
Draw 23.36%
| Notts County | Draw | Derby County |
| 2-1 @ 8.65% ( -0.26) 1-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.28)2-0 @ 5.61% ( -0.4)3-1 @ 4.79% ( -0.29)3-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 3.11% ( -0.32)4-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.18)4-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.17)Other @ 3.47% Total : 40.9% | 1-1 @ 10.4% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.66% ( 0.07)0-0 @ 4.07% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.36% | 1-2 @ 8.02% ( 0.31) 0-1 @ 6.26% ( 0.17)0-2 @ 4.83% ( 0.32)1-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.31)2-3 @ 3.42% ( 0.17)0-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.25)1-4 @ 1.59% ( 0.18)2-4 @ 1.32% ( 0.11)0-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.74% Total : 35.73% |
How you voted: Notts County vs Derby
Notts County
31.6%Draw
15.8%Derby County
52.6%19
Head to Head
Aug 1, 2021 1pm
Jul 14, 2018 3pm
Jul 19, 2014 1pm
Form Guide
