We said: Ajax 3-1 Heracles
While Heracles are enjoying their best run of form this season, Ajax have been sensational over the last couple of months and have not been beaten in a league game at the Johan Cruijff ArenA in well over a year. With one eye on their Europa League second-leg playoff tie, the hosts are likely to make a few changes for this match, but we feel they will still be too good for the visitors in this one. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 79.95%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 7.06%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.86%) and 1-0 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.12%), while for a Heracles win it was 0-1 (2.22%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Heracles |
79.95% ( 0.01) | 12.99% ( -0.01) | 7.06% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 47.73% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.33% ( 0.05) | 32.67% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.65% ( 0.05) | 54.34% ( -0.05) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.64% ( 0.01) | 6.36% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 76.12% ( 0.03) | 23.87% ( -0.03) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.97% ( 0.03) | 49.02% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 16.03% ( 0.02) | 83.97% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
Ajax 79.94%
Heracles 7.06%
Draw 12.99%
| Ajax | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-0 @ 11.83% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 10.86% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 8.59% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 8.43% ( -0)3-1 @ 7.75% ( 0)4-0 @ 7.49% ( 0)4-1 @ 5.34% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 4.13% ( 0)5-1 @ 2.94% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.76% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.9% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.9% ( 0)6-1 @ 1.35% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.05% ( 0)Other @ 3.63% Total : 79.94% | 1-1 @ 6.12% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.12% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.01% ( 0)Other @ 0.74% Total : 12.99% | 0-1 @ 2.22% ( -0) 1-2 @ 2.18% Other @ 2.66% Total : 7.06% |
How you voted: Ajax vs Heracles
Ajax
97.4%Draw
2.6%Heracles
0.0%38
Head to Head
Oct 20, 2024 1.30pm
Gameweek 9
Heracles
3-4
Ajax
Jan 27, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 19
Heracles
2-4
Ajax
