Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 90.2%. A draw had a probability of 6.8% and a win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 3.03%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (10.05%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.05%), while for a VVV-Venlo win it was 1-2 (1.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
