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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 75.01%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Emmen had a probability of 9.33%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.02%) and 1-0 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.42%), while for a Emmen win it was 0-1 (3.01%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Emmen |
75.01% ( -0.03) | 15.65% ( 0.01) | 9.33% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 48.31% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.36% ( -0.04) | 37.64% ( 0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.12% ( -0.04) | 59.87% ( 0.04) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.51% ( -0.02) | 8.49% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.57% ( -0.04) | 29.43% ( 0.03) |
Emmen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.79% ( -0) | 47.2% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.36% | 82.64% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Emmen |
2-0 @ 12.18% 3-0 @ 10.02% 1-0 @ 9.88% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.52% ( -0) 4-0 @ 6.18% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 4.64% ( -0) 5-0 @ 3.05% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.82% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.29% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.25% ( -0) 6-1 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 3.34% Total : 75% | 1-1 @ 7.42% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.01% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.43% ( 0) Other @ 0.79% Total : 15.65% | 0-1 @ 3.01% ( 0) 1-2 @ 2.79% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.13% ( 0) Other @ 2.41% Total : 9.33% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 21 | 21 |
2 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 16 |
3 | FC Twente | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 13 |
5 | Ajax | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
6 | Feyenoord | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 10 |
7 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 10 |
9 | Groningen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
10 | Heracles | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 9 |
11 | Willem II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 8 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
14 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
15 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
16 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 6 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 2 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 19 | -16 | 0 |
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