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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 75.01%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Emmen had a probability of 9.33%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.02%) and 1-0 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.42%), while for a Emmen win it was 0-1 (3.01%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Emmen |
75.01% ( -0.03) | 15.65% ( 0.01) | 9.33% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 48.31% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.36% ( -0.04) | 37.64% ( 0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.12% ( -0.04) | 59.87% ( 0.04) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.51% ( -0.02) | 8.49% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.57% ( -0.04) | 29.43% ( 0.03) |
Emmen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.79% ( -0) | 47.2% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.36% | 82.64% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Emmen |
2-0 @ 12.18% 3-0 @ 10.02% 1-0 @ 9.88% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.52% ( -0) 4-0 @ 6.18% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 4.64% ( -0) 5-0 @ 3.05% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.82% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.29% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.25% ( -0) 6-1 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 3.34% Total : 75% | 1-1 @ 7.42% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.01% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.43% ( 0) Other @ 0.79% Total : 15.65% | 0-1 @ 3.01% ( 0) 1-2 @ 2.79% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.13% ( 0) Other @ 2.41% Total : 9.33% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |