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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 80.76%. A draw had a probability of 12% and a win for Emmen had a probability of 7.26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.63%) and 3-1 (8.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.35%), while for a Emmen win it was 1-2 (2.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Emmen |
80.76% ( 0.03) | 11.97% ( -0.01) | 7.26% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 54% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
74.01% ( 0.03) | 25.99% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
53.8% ( 0.04) | 46.2% ( -0.04) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
95.11% ( 0.01) | 4.89% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
80.35% ( 0.03) | 19.65% ( -0.03) |
Emmen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.78% ( -0) | 43.22% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.53% ( -0) | 79.47% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Emmen |
3-0 @ 9.68% 2-0 @ 9.63% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 8.12% 2-1 @ 8.08% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 6.13% ( 0) 5-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 3.7% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.41% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.57% ( 0) 6-0 @ 2.22% ( 0) 6-1 @ 1.86% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.55% ( 0) 7-0 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 4.78% Total : 80.76% | 1-1 @ 5.35% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.39% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.11% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 0.17% Total : 11.97% | 1-2 @ 2.25% ( -0) 0-1 @ 1.77% ( -0) 2-3 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 2.3% Total : 7.26% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |