Eredivisie | 1st Leg

May 19, 2022 at 5.45pm UK

Abe Lenstra Stadion

Heerenveen
3 - 2
AZ

(AZ Alkmaar win 4-3 on aggregate)

van Hooijdonk (58'), Sarr (90'), Halilovic (90+4')
van Hooijdonk (4'), van Ewijk (20'), Haye (68')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Evjen (59'), Pavlidis (65')
Karlsson (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Eredivisie clash between Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Heerenveen

Last Six:

Last Game: AZ 2-0 Heerenveen
Sunday, May 22 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
8	NEC	33	-13	38
9	Heerenveen	33	-15	38
10	Go Ahead Eagles	33	-12	36

AZ Alkmaar

Last Six:

Last Game: AZ 6-1 Vitesse
Sunday, May 29 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
4	FC Twente	33	17	65
5	AZ Alkmaar	33	22	61
6	Vitesse	33	-9	50

We said: Heerenveen 2-2 AZ Alkmaar

AZ have had no problems finding the net despite their dip in form, while there have been goals aplenty in recent games involving Heerenveen, so an entertaining contest is expected at the Abe Lenstra Stadion. However, with little to separate these two teams, a score draw could be on the cards, keeping the tie nicely poised heading into Sunday's second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 45.32%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 2-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.

Result
Heerenveen	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
30.44% ( -0.01)	24.23%	45.32% ( 0)

Both teams to score 58.54% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.19% (

-0.01)

43.81% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.8% (

-0)

66.2% (

Heerenveen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.71% (

-0.01)

27.28% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.28% (

-0.01)

62.72% (

0.01)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.51% (

19.49% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.64% (

51.36% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Heerenveen 30.45%

AZ Alkmaar 45.32%

Draw 24.23%

Heerenveen	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
2-1 @ 7.34% ( -0) 1-0 @ 6.91% 2-0 @ 4.49% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.18% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.94% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.03% ( -0) Other @ 2.97% Total : 30.45%	1-1 @ 11.29% 2-2 @ 6% 0-0 @ 5.32% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.42% Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.23%	1-2 @ 9.24% ( 0) 0-1 @ 8.7% ( 0) 0-2 @ 7.11% ( 0) 1-3 @ 5.03% 0-3 @ 3.88% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.27% 1-4 @ 2.06% 0-4 @ 1.58% 2-4 @ 1.34% Other @ 3.12% Total : 45.32%