Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ win with a probability of 39.14%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 36.66% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.51%) and 0-2 (5.78%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 2-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ would win this match.
