Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 48.43%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 27.6% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.2%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
