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Europa League
AZ Alkmaar
Europa League | League Stage
Sep 25, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
AFAS Stadion

AZ
3 - 2
Elfsborg

van Bommel (44', 50'), Parrott (74' pen.)
Mijnans (80'), Belic (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Ouma (23'), Hedlund (53')
Ouma (59'), Abdulai (83')
Holmen (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Europa League clash between AZ Alkmaar and Elfsborg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions
Last Game: PEC Zwolle 1-2 AZ
Friday, September 20 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Elfsborg

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Elfsborg 0-0 Hammarby
Sunday, September 22 at 1pm in Swedish Allsvenskan

We said: AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Elfsborg

 AZ have made a brilliant start to the season, and should have enough to overcome one of the lowest-ranked sides in this season's competition. On their return to the European stage after over a decade away, it will be a baptism of fire for Elfsborg with numerous tricky fixtures, including this one against one of the most in-form sides in Holland at present. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 57.56%. A win for Elfsborg had a probability of 21.44% and a draw had a probability of 21%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.22%) and 1-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Elfsborg win was 1-2 (5.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ AlkmaarDrawElfsborg
57.56% (0.061 0.06) 21% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02) 21.44% (-0.040000000000003 -0.04)
Both teams to score 60.81% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.23% (0.032999999999994 0.03)36.77% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.07% (0.036999999999999 0.04)58.94% (-0.032000000000004 -0.03)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.36% (0.028999999999996 0.03)12.64% (-0.025 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.21% (0.057000000000002 0.06)38.79% (-0.053000000000004 -0.05)
Elfsborg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.61% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)30.39% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.42% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)66.59% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Score Analysis
    AZ Alkmaar 57.56%
    Elfsborg 21.44%
    Draw 21%
AZ AlkmaarDrawElfsborg
2-1 @ 9.79%
2-0 @ 8.22% (0.004999999999999 0)
1-0 @ 7.95% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-1 @ 6.75% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.66% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
3-2 @ 4.02% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-1 @ 3.49% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.93% (0.008 0.01)
4-2 @ 2.08% (0.0030000000000001 0)
5-1 @ 1.44% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.21% (0.004 0)
Other @ 4.04%
Total : 57.56%
1-1 @ 9.46% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.83% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-0 @ 3.84% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 1.6%
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 21%
1-2 @ 5.64% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
0-1 @ 4.58% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-2 @ 2.73% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.31% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 2.24% (-0.004 -0)
0-3 @ 1.08% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 21.44%

How you voted: AZ vs Elfsborg

AZ Alkmaar
85.2%
Draw
8.5%
Elfsborg
6.3%
223
rhs 2.0
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