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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 60.58%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for NEC had a probability of 19.68%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.99%) and 3-1 (7.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.64%), while for a NEC win it was 1-2 (5.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | NEC |
60.58% ( -1.99) | 19.73% ( 0.46) | 19.68% ( 1.53) |
Both teams to score 62.6% ( 1.24) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.82% ( 0.32) | 33.17% ( -0.32) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.07% ( 0.36) | 54.92% ( -0.37) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.29% ( -0.41) | 10.71% ( 0.4) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.37% ( -0.91) | 34.63% ( 0.91) |
NEC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.1% ( 1.7) | 29.89% ( -1.71) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34% ( 2.01) | 65.99% ( -2.01) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | NEC |
2-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 7.99% ( -0.42) 3-1 @ 7.19% ( -0.15) 1-0 @ 7.15% ( -0.25) 3-0 @ 5.95% ( -0.42) 3-2 @ 4.34% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 4.01% ( -0.16) 4-0 @ 3.32% ( -0.3) 4-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.1) 5-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.16) 5-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.22% Total : 60.58% | 1-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 5.82% ( 0.25) 0-0 @ 3.2% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.33% Total : 19.73% | 1-2 @ 5.21% ( 0.3) 0-1 @ 3.87% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.2) 0-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.17) 1-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.21) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.11) Other @ 2.89% Total : 19.68% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 16 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 56 | 13 | 43 | 42 |
2 | Ajax | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 36 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 35 |
5 | FC Twente | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 31 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 29 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 22 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 22 |
10 | Heerenveen | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 21 |
11 | Willem II | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 12 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 40 | -23 | 6 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 37 | -30 | 6 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |